Widespread dearth of rainfall set to hit food prices hard

HEFTY increases in the price of staples such as bread, mealie meal and maize are likely to ravage wealthy and poor alike as the effects of crop failures due to the drought take hold.

Organised commercial agriculture has called on South Africans to pray for rain, and AgriSA is organising a mass prayer meeting to take place at Nampo Park near Bothaville in the Free State on Friday.

Agricultural economist Professor Johan Willemse of Free State University said although meat would become cheaper in the run-up to Christmas as abattoirs are overrun by farmers who have to slaughter animals in need of feed and fodder, a sharp price increase will follow as the country’s core commercial herd is thinned.

“This drought has been developing over a few years. At this stage, two-thirds of every loaf of bread is made from imported wheat.

“That percentage will increase after another crop failure due to the drought, specifically in the Swartland region of the Western Cape.

“The resultant shortfall in wheat production would have to be made up by importing wheat.

“Because of the weak rand, the effect on the price of bread will be severe.

“Also, our harbours are becoming congested. We are struggling to handle and transport all the imported wheat and maize we need to provide staple to our people,” said Willemse.

“The same therefore goes for the price of maize. The winter maize harvest was very far below average.

“We should budget for an increase of 30% to 40% in the price of mealie meal — the staple of our country’s poor.

“The food security of our poorest people is under threat. Research shows that the poorest 30% of South Africans spend 50% of their income on food. If mealie meal, bread and rice increase by 10% to 15%, it will take a terrible toll,” Willemse said.

The growing need to import yellow maize, much of which is used for feed, means that the price of milk, pork and chicken will also increase in line with feed prices, the economist warns.