Zuma’s jet won’t get us very far
IN the movie Johnny English, the British spy character played by Rowan “Mr Bean” Atkinson spots an Archbishop of Canterbury lookalike being prepared for the coronation of the new king of England. As the lookalike bends down to pull up his pants, Atkinson’s character sees that tattooed above the old chap’s bottom are the words “Jesus is coming back, look busy”.
Given President Jacob Zuma’s promise that the ANC will rule South Africa until Jesus returns, the old chap needs to get busy. The kind of busyness Zuma needs to engage in, however, doesn’t involve flying around the world. The cures for South Africa’s ills are not to be found abroad. On that basis alone, buying a new jet for our president sounds like a bad idea.
Don’t get me wrong: international diplomacy does matter. But a country’s voice in international forums is determined by two things: economic power and military strength. The two often go hand in hand, although there are exceptions. Singapore is one; at the other end of the spectrum is North Korea.
Economic power is an outcome of sustained economic growth. This generates financial resources that a government can use, primarily at home, but also on the international front. One of the characteristics common to all of humanity is respect for, and fascination with, success. Economic success and prosperity therefore bring about respect from one’s peers. Some of the respect may come about grudgingly.
Unfortunately, post-apartheid South Africa got off on the wrong foot. We got respect from our international peers largely because of the peaceful transition to democracy in 1994.
This was captured in a Foreign Affairs magazine article by three Yale University academics, the most prominent of whom was Paul Kennedy.
In light of the collapse of the Soviet IN THEIR STRIDE: Economic power and military strength often go hand in hand and determine a country’s voice in international forums. A notable exception to this is the militaristic state of North Korea, in whose capital, Pyongyang, soldiers take part in a parade Union, they argued for a change in US foreign policy to take into account what they described as pivotal states. These were states that could influence the economic and political direction of their regions — but also affect international stability. South Africa was added to the list.
Globally, since 1994 South Africa has been punching way above its economic weight.
In simple English, this means we have been propelled around the world to a large extent by hot air, the so-called 1994 miracle. It helped that we had financial markets that are deep, liquid, and well-integrated globally.
Second, we rode the wave of emerging markets, at the fore of which were China and India. But this too is, by some analysis, waning somewhat.
Although China’s growth rate remains high by global standards, it is slowing and the composition of its growth is changing. India muddles along, albeit with respectable growth rates. Brazil, the other emerging market economy that was riding high, is up to the neck in the muck.
All of these factors explain why South Africa is a member of the G20, countries that account for 85% of global GDP and 75% of world trade. It is also a member of Brics (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). In both forums, South Africa is the smallest economy by far. In the G20’s case, rankings are distorted by the EU, which comes in as a bloc rather than its constituent parts.
But South Africa doesn’t appear to appreciate its precarious position. The wearing-off of the post-1994 gloss means that South Africa has run out of hot air. In Africa, South Africa doesn’t carry much weight. South Africa’s voice in international forums currently depends on the depth of financial markets and their integration with the globe.
So, as South Africa fails to achieve economic success, its standing globally will become weaker. This has serious implications. Take the push for the transformation of the IMF, a cause championed by developing countries. South Africa has lost out, and will lose more, because the size of a member’s economy is a key determinant of voice.
The more success our country and other developing countries have in pushing for a bigger voice, the more South Africa’s voice will shrink unless its economy grows faster.
The things that ail our economy are well known.
To solve them requires an old-style politician with fairly basic tools of the trade: a strong hand and a smile. A long-range jet isn’t one of the tools.
A strong hand and a smile — some say charm — go a long way. Nelson Mandela used both effectively. Bill Clinton, too. But a good politician needs a strong hand for another reason as well: to squeeze balls, and whatever else can be squeezed.
As stated in one of my earlier columns, economic growth is an outcome of political decisions and activity. These include commitment by the government to a policy path that investors believe will not be chopped and changed halfway. The second political channel relates to the provision of quality public goods and services (health, education and infrastructure).
South Africa continues to send conflicting policy signals to investors and fails to provide quality public goods and services. Solutions lie at home, not abroad. And if we don’t address these failures, future presidents will travel abroad a lot more to ask for aid. Or we could pray harder for Jesus’ early return.
Sikhakhane is deputy editor of The Conversation Africa
We have been propelled around the world to a large extent by hot air, the so-called 1994 miracle
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