A chance to mend the bridge to Africa

RELATIONS with Nigeria and the rest of Africa have suffered the most as South Africa jockeys to get closer to its Brics partners — if it’s not China, it’s Russia.

So this coming week’s state visit by President Jacob Zuma to Nigeria, the first of any president to the country of the recently elected Muhammadu Buhari, can be viewed as an attempt to mend these relations.

The jury is still out on just how much of a success the association comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa will eventually prove to be. I have always had a rather uncertain feeling about this grouping, given that there’s no shared history between these nations, except that their economic fortunes are tied to the continued economic success of China.

Chinese growth wobbles have shown up cracks — in Brazil, Russia and South Africa, in particular.

There is no detracting from the importance of having good relations with some of the world’s leading economies, but at what expense?

In pursuing these relations, Zuma’s administration has overlooked the importance of cementing political and economic relations in Africa. And it starts with Abuja, Nigeria.

South Africa and Nigeria meet at a time when economic headwinds ensure that there will, at the very least, be a good measure of humility.

Oil’s rapid decline has played havoc with Nigerian state finances, of which the fuel makes up about 80%. The decline makes Buhari’s attempts to deal with Boko Haram, the Islamist extremist group, all the more difficult.

The naira, Nigeria’s currency, has collapsed to record lows and the country looks set to follow the path of neighbour Ghana in losing some of its sovereignty to the IMF.

Sitting across the table from Buhari will be a South African president weighed down by his own political situation, a rapidly slowing economy and the threat of a return to a junk credit rating by the world’s leading ratings agencies.

An IMF visit by Christine Lagarde and her team in the not-too-distant future is not such a far-fetched possibility.

Given the conditions facing both countries, there really ought to be no chest-beating at this week’s state visit.

It’s a chance to mend relations, the deterioration of which is best exemplified by the crippling fine handed to MTN by Nigeria’s regulatory authority.

There’s no doubt that the mobile operator was in the wrong, but one must question whether the fine fits the crime.

Apart from MTN, several local companies, such as Truworths, have had to either leave or consider exiting their Nigerian operations. Milk producer Clover is another re-evaluating its investment.

Investment by South African corporates in the Nigerian economy — given the state of its fiscus — cannot be scoffed at.

MTN is the biggest contributor to Nigeria’s economy in the non-oil sector, contributing 4.5% to GDP, and has invested more than $15-billion (about R230-billion) since starting operations there some 15 years ago.

In turn, Nigeria is a growth haven for many South African companies.

Africa’s most populous country promises great rewards for corporates panicked by slowing growth prospects.

I don’t know if it will ever be possible to recreate the relations we saw between former presidents Olusegun Obasanjo and Thabo Mbeki, but let this visit be an improvement on the relations between Zuma and Goodluck Jonathan.

And then it’s time to focus on other continental neighbours that are as troubled as we are, among them Angola, Ghana, Mozambique and Zambia, which were the darlings of international investors until little more than a year ago.