Rumbles of opposition but Zuma appears to be safe for now

A RECALL was always going to be a long shot for President Jacob Zuma’s opponents in the ANC’s national executive committee.

Although confirmation that members of the Gupta family had offered Deputy Finance Minister Mcebisi Jonas a cabinet post as finance minister shocked and angered many in the leadership, not all of them went into this weekend’s meeting convinced that sacking Zuma was possible, or even desirable for the party.

For outsiders who have watched Zuma plunge his pres- idency, the party and the country into one crisis after another, it is hard to fathom why he is hanging on whereas the party recalled Thabo Mbeki on the basis of a, presumably, lesser offence.

The political circumstances, however, differ.

As ANC secretary-general Gwede Mantashe reminded us this week, when Mbeki was fired, he was politically weak. Mbeki had lost the ANC presidency to Zuma just months before and had less than a year left as head of state.

Zuma went into this weekend’s NEC meeting in a position of strength as president of both the party and the country.

There is no doubt his position is weakened, especially after the December finance minister reshuffle debacle and the latest episode of Guptagate. But he is not weak enough to be ousted.

A quick glance at the list of the 88-plus people who make up the NEC shows that the majority of them are loyalists, or cabinet members.

They are backed by the ANC youth and the women’s leagues — which had turned on Mbeki when he was axed.

Even among NEC members who see the president as a liability to the country and the party, there is disagreement over recalling him.

Still recovering from the divisions caused by Mbeki’s axing in 2008 — it resulted in a break- away political party being formed — they are wary of the consequences of firing a president so close to the local elections.

So most of them went into this weekend’s meeting looking to pressure Zuma to cut ties with the Guptas, rather than to axe him.

They are hoping the party can put the president on a leash.

But that approach may backfire as it could embolden a president many believe has been on the ropes since firing Nhlanhla Nene from the finance portfolio.

Already, Zuma backers in the ANC upper echelons are talking of another cabinet reshuffle being on the cards — the targets of which would be Trade and Industry Minister Rob Davies and others opposed to Zuma.

If Zuma does reshuffle his cabinet — especially if he moves Jonas from the deputy finance position to punish him for speaking out — he will be sending a strong message to his foes that he is still in charge and not afraid to wield his power.

Many had thought he had become a lame-duck president after the Nene debacle.

But since then, indications have been that the president and his supporters in government are reclaiming the initiative — launching various investigations against senior government officials they believe to be against him.

However,

the

president’s continued hold over the NEC and the levers of government may not be enough to help him stay in power until 2019.

Disgruntled party supporters, including former senior commanders in its military wing, are beginning to mobilise for a special national conference that would dissolve the NEC and elect a new president.

Outside the ANC structures, there are several court cases — especially the impending Constitutional Court ruling on Zuma and the government’s failure to implement the public protector’s recommendations on Nkandla — whose outcomes may force the party’s hand.