Fear of DRC ‘Burundi on steroids’ William Clowes
Taciturn president lets his jackboot actions do the talking, writes
OPPOSING the government in the Democratic Republic of Congo is a dispiriting business. Executive privileges, a partisan security apparatus and tight control of the economy can make President Joseph Kabila appear almost unassailable.
This month has been especially distressing for the president’s adversaries. Their fears that Kabila does not intend to give up power on December 19, when his second and supposedly final term ends, look increasingly justified. Two recent legal developments have cemented the president’s position and set the Congo on an increasingly uncertain path.
On May 4, businessman Moise Katumbi, a former Kabila ally and provincial governor who owns TP Mazembe, Africa’s soccer champs, announced his intention to run for president.
The same day, the justice minister opened an investigation into allegations, first broadcast by a pro-government TV station, that Katumbi had recruited foreign mercenaries.
Within two weeks, an arrest warrant had been issued for Kabila’s most credible rival.
Many believe the case is politically motivated. “It’s a crude assault with one objective, one goal: to invalidate Mr Katumbi as a candidate for the presidency,” said Christian Mwando, an MP and supporter of the opposition candidate.
Katumbi, who was caught up in teargas before his third legal hearing, has been allowed to travel to South Africa for medical treatment, but his supporters insist he is unfazed by the indictment and will soon return to defend himself.
Nevertheless, the businessman’s decision to leave the Congo and the government’s decision to authorise this have perplexed observers.
Stephanie Wolters, the head of conflict prevention and risk analysis at the Institute for Security Studies in Johannesburg, said: “If Katumbi is serious about his political career he will have to go back and face charges, or [he will] stand accused of lacking the courage to face the government and folding at the first obstacle.”
However, Wolters acknowledged that it would be “unusually shrewd” of Kabila’s government to “force Katumbi into exile and make him take the blame for it”.
On May 11, the opposition’s challenge was further handicapped when the constitutional court ruled that the president could stay in office beyond the end of his mandate in December if elections are not organised in time. This decision, while not unexpected, was a blow for the president’s enemies, who have long accused Kabila of deliberately delaying elections until he can modify or replace the constitution to allow him to serve a third term.
“The constitutional court ruling is significant, because it lends legitimacy to what is essentially a straightforward power grab,” said Wolters. The elec- toral commission speaks of needing more than a year simply to update the voters roll — some of the president’s allies suggest taking two to four years to conduct a national census before holding elections. So this verdict could win Kabila several extra years in power without even needing to go to the polls.
The opposition responded immediately to the prospect of an extended Kabila presidency of undefined length by calling for nationwide protests on May 26.
Floribert Anzuluni, the coordinator of the Citizen Front 2016, a large coalition of political parties and civil society groups, said: “The objective is to protest against the constitutional court’s ruling and demand the departure of President Kabila in December.”
Their difficulties and Kabila’s advantages were further emphasised when the authorities banned marches in most cities. In Kinshasa, where the governor allowed the protest to go ahead, the several thousand demonstrators were dispersed with bright pink teargas.
Anti-Kabila events often end this way, with security forces either neutralising them before they can begin, or violently breaking them up. Opposition leader Martin Fayulu said: “Kabila’s regime is mocking the population.”
Perhaps aware of this cruel reality, the opposition is pursuing another strategy, this one beyond the president’s control: targeted sanctions against key figures in the Kabila regime.
The US has declared it is “reviewing the possibility of imposing sanctions in response to this growing pattern of repression” in the Congo. Such measures are also being seriously considered in the EU, with the UK leading the calls for their implementation.
Olivier Kamitatu, a former planning minister under Kabila and now one of Katumbi’s most prominent supporters, recently led a weeklong delegation to Washington, DC, to press for sanctions against Kabila and his associates. Referring to meetings with representatives of both houses of Congress and the Obama administration, Kamitatu said “they were absolutely receptive”.
Of the work still to be done in
Perhaps Kabila will think twice when his circle’s holiday plans are threatened
persuading European governments to target senior Congolese officials with travel bans and asset freezes, he stressed that “we must put pressure on all our partners so that this election takes place and that we don’t descend into chaos”.
The Congolese opposition and the international community are united in their desperation to have Kabila respect the constitution and step down from power this year. There are real concerns that an electoral and constitutional crisis could turn the DRC into a “Burundi on steroids”, as the US’s special envoy to the Great Lakes recently put it.
But the famously taciturn Kabila appears unmoved by the demands of the opposition or the risk of reduced donor commitments. Perhaps he will think twice when his circle’s holiday plans and bank accounts are threatened.
Clowes is a freelance journalist based in the Congo