Anglo waiting for right time to offload an efficient Kumba
WITH Kumba Iron Ore’s share price up 123% this year, helped by a stronger iron ore price, is the company attractive for potential buyers?
Kumba CEO Norman Mbazima said on Tuesday that the share price was one consideration, but other factors counted more, such as the sustainability of the business.
He said the company was still in the early stages of preparing the business for sale. It had to decide next month whether to issue a teaser to gauge buyers’ interest, or issue a circular. Only then would potential buyers be looked at.
Parent Anglo American is looking to sell its 69.7% stake in Kumba, to reduce the number of its businesses and focus on its platinum, diamond and copper assets.
Anglo this year sold some of its operations, a niobium and phosphate mining business in Brazil, for $1.5-billion (about R23-billion) to the China Molybdenum Company and some Australian coal mines. Last year, it sold assets worth $2.1-billion.
Anglo CEO Mark Cutifani said earlier this year that the company hoped to have debt below $10-billion by year-end. He said Kumba was not going to be among the first sold because of a few complications.
He did not mention what those complications were but Kumba was currently restructuring. It had a tax bill of R5.5billion from SARS and Sishen’s BEE deal with Exxaro was maturing in November this year.
Anglo is targeting about $3billion to $4-billion from sales this year. According to its 2015 annual report, the group has $12.9-billion of net debt.
It wanted to get rid of its coal assets first and all the other iron ore operations abroad. “These [sales] will already be in the process — ahead of Kumba,” said Mbazima.
Anglo said this week that it was in discussions with key stakeholders and potential buyers to sell its Eskom-tied mines. It said the process to divest its export coal assets was progressing well.
One potential buyer for Kumba could be Exxaro. Exxaro spokesman Mzila Mthenjane said this week the company recognised the opportunity of investing in Kumba and would consider its options based on its investment portfolio and the market. At the moment its focus was to invest in coal, service its debt and return cash to shareholders.
But for other potential buyers, the prospect of Exxaro exiting its investment in Sishen when the BIG BUCKS: Mineworkers repair the teeth of a shovel excavator at Sishen. The price of iron ore has risen about 11.5% this year alone ENTHUSIASTIC: Kumba CEO Norman Mbazima says Sishen would be a good investment for Exxaro BEE deal expires in November means Kumba’s BEE percentage may be reduced. Empowerment in mining is being debated, with the government saying that miners should always have empowerment partners that hold a 26% stake, a stance the industry is challenging.
Exxaro, for a long time benefited from Kumba by owning 20% of Sishen. However, in the past year, Exxaro has felt the pinch as the metal price dropped and Kumba had to cut dividends.
Mbazima said it would be an excellent investment for Exxaro if it continued with the 20% stake or increased it, “even without the shackles” of BEE ownership and compliance agreements.
Matthew Shields, an analyst at Avior Capital Markets, said Exxaro mentioned in its 2015 annual report that its investment in Sishen would receive the board’s attention.
“In addition, Exxaro requested that Kumba management present its investment thesis for the first time. This leads me to believe that Exxaro is uneasy with its investment in Sishen and would be more likely to exit . . . than take on a larger stake.”
Although Kumba’s share price has performed well this year, he was sceptical of the higher iron ore prices and felt the share looked expensive. “Increasing its stake in Sishen would take capital away from the group’s large project pipeline in its core coal business.”
Other analysts agreed Exxaro might not bid for Kumba.
Kumba, which was trading at about R25 a share early in January, is now trading at about R86. Iron ore was the commodity most affected by China’s slowdown. But this year alone the price of iron ore has climbed about 11.5% after dropping as low as $26 a ton last year.
Kumba, which has three operations, had to close down Thabazimbi. But Kolomela was doing well as a modernised mine designed to withstand such economic pressures, said Mbazima.
There was very much a consultation on why is this the right structure Exxaro is uneasy with its investment in Sishen and would be more likely to exit
Sishen production declined by 12% last year and the company has to cut about 2 633 jobs and 1 300 contractors.
Mbazima said it had completed section 189 talks with unions and laid off about 2 000 workers, many through voluntary severance packages. Most of the workforce would be gone by the end of next month. Forced retrenchments would be minimal.
“Negotiations with the unions are always robust, but I can’t tell you how pleased I am with the way the process has gone. Normally you fear the unions will want to reduce less, but there was very much a consultation on why is this the right structure and what will it do for the company.”
Following Kumba’s restructuring, the company would be able to withstand iron prices of $32 to $40 a ton, said Mbazima.
“This year, we say our breakeven price should be somewhere between $32 and $38, and if it’s above, then we are making money.”
He said he did not foresee prices going up but expected them to continue to fall due to reduced demand from China.
Looking to future growth markets for iron ore, Mbazima said: “India will be the next big thing. Maybe not as fastgrowing as China because of the regulations, but there’s growth there.”