The times, they are a changin’ -- or are they?

Hard work lies ahead before smaller parties can deliver a knockout blow to a bloodied ANC, writes Jan-Jan Joubert

UPON winning the 1997 British general election by a landslide, prime minister Tony Blair memorably proclaimed: “A new day has dawned, has it not?”

The same optimism has infused supporters of local opposition parties since the August 3 local government elections when South Africans united in their diversity to give the ANC its bloodiest nose since the country’s democratisation in 1994.

How did this happen? Can the ANC avoid sliding below 50% in 2019’s general election? And can the opposition recreate the mutual support network that led to the ANC being beaten in almost 50 municipalities, including four of the six major metros?

The ANC need look no further than itself to find the reason for its decline. Mostly, the ANC had to battle, and will continue to battle, the perception that it resembles nothing more than a kleptocratic mutual benefit society.

The official ANC policy of cadre deployment, which favours party loyalty above ability in municipal governance — coupled with the astounding amounts of money the auditor-general has found to be wasted under ANC governance of Nelson Mandela Bay (R1.8-billion), Tshwane (R1.3-billion) and Johannesburg (R362-million) as opposed to the relatively small amount in DA-ruled Cape Town (R339 000) — makes the jobs for pals argument very hard for the ANC to refute.

The ANC had ample chance to correct these trends. For the past 10 years, it had the example of Cape Town to emulate by opening up its tender processes to public scrutiny — the public may attend every step of the tender process in the Cape, thereby making tender fraud well nigh impossible — but it chose not to.

It will be one of the first orders of business in many of the new councils to switch to the DA tender model, and the effects are sure to be as immediately beneficial as they have been in other non-ANC strongholds.

It would take nothing for the ANC to implement the same positive steps in the areas it still controls, such as eThekwini, Ekurhuleni, Mangaung and Buffalo City, thereby freeing up money to benefit the taxpayer and the poor rather than politically connected tenderpreneurs.

In short, for the ANC to rehabilitate itself it must rid itself of the impression among a growing group of diverse voters that it is dishonest.

For that to happen, it must act honestly and in the interests of strengthening constitutional principles, of which the separation of powers is one of the most paramount.

Unfortunately, initial indications are not favourable. The actions of ANC MP Peace Mabe, who was sworn in as a councillor in Mogale City without resigning as MP and then was back in parliament when she was beaten to the mayoralty by the DA candidate — with house chairwoman and ANC MP Grace Boroto not lifting a finger to stop the obvious abuse — are a case in point.

In fact, much as the ANC has tried to paint the united opposition against it as opportunism, it was in the trenches of parliament — literally blood-soaked since the current crop of often (with about two honourable exceptions) ANC-biased presiding officers took over in 2014 — that the personal bonds between divergent opposition leaders were forged.

What goes around comes around. If you use questionably appointed bouncer heavies to assault the opposition and break the jaw of elderly EFF MP Reneiloe Mashabela, her colleagues might just shun you, as the ANC was shunned.

Where the court overturns the abuse of the ethics committee by the likes of former Johannesburg mayor and ANC heavyweight Amos Masondo against DA leader Mmusi Maimane, in much the same way as the Constitutional Court found against the cynical ANC-inspired abuse of parliament to protect President Jacob Zuma on the Nkandla matter, it is hard to argue against the perception that the rot in the party runs deep.

Opposition parties have their own challenges ahead. The DA has gained way more municipalities than it expected, and its human resources will be thinly spread in reforming cities and towns where expectations of change and success are high. It will have to contend with multiple centres of power as mayors flex their muscle.

The EFF has gained respect everywhere for its revolutionary and principled rejection of patronage and positions in return for opposition solidarity. It has, however, been clear from EFF body language that ANC jibes claiming that the EFF has sold out to the DA make some impact.

As for the IFP, it has lost much power over many years because it governed listlessly and poorly, without real plans to better people’s lives. It has been given an unlikely chance to mend its ways. Will it, for instance, empower citizens by handing them title deeds where it governs? Without tangible results for citizens, the IFP elephant will falter again.

Most importantly for the opposition parties, it will be harder to replicate their co-operation in 2019 because their ideological and policy differences are much harder to bridge nationally than in the case of municipal governance.

Has a new day dawned, as they may hope, or has it not, as Blair found in the end?

Some tough decisions lie ahead for the ANC and its opponents before the voters decide the national balance of power in 2019.

The DA will have to contend with multiple centres of power as mayors flex their muscle