Farmers hope for rain but prepare for more drought
ON the eve of the new summer crop season that starts next month, the agricultural sector will be hoping for good weather — but at this stage it remains a wild card.
The sector is still reeling from the drought that earlier this year severely cut food production, forcing South Africa to import some food stocks such as maize to plug the shortfall.
White maize, which is rarely available on the international market, is usually milled into maize meal and is a staple food for many South Africans. Yellow maize is a common input for animal feed, such as that used in the poultry industry.
“The current drought is the result of a sequence of dry spells and extreme hot conditions associated with strong el Niño . . . especially over the central parts of South Africa,” said Asmerom Beraki, senior scientist at the South African Weather Service.
He said a well-established la Niña, a weather pattern that occurs after a drought cycle and is associated with heavy rains, was highly unlikely.
The impact of the unfavourable weather has been felt far and wide.
Poultry producers such as Astral and RCL Foods have been beset by huge feed-cost pressures, contributing to a decline in their recent financial performances.
“The size of the local crop determines our feed costs — if we are in surplus then prices trend towards export parity,” said South African Poultry Association CEO Kevin Lovell. “Secondly, there is a supply risk if imports are inadequate. It’s too early to know what the coming summer holds.”
Adding to the list of worries is the weaker rand, which inflates the cost of imports. South Africa is expected to import between three and four million tons of maize in the marketing season that ends in April next year.
Astral implemented an import programme in July to mitigate the risk of maize shortages.
Nobody at this stage could tell whether the drought was really broken or what the rainfall would be in the coming season, said Agri SA deputy director Johan Pienaar. “A worst-case scenario is that el Niño will persist, which is apparently not unlikely. So there is a real probability that the upcoming season will not be that good either. Obviously we hope that it will not be the case,” he said.
Tongaat Hulett spokeswoman Michelle Jean-Louis said rain over the past two months in the coastal sugarcane catchment area had been encouraging.
“Growing conditions, influenced by rainfall, will have a significant bearing on sugar production for the following season.” NEVER WHERE YOU NEED IT: An umpire walks off the pitch at Kingsmead, Durban, as rain falls during the South Africa-New Zealand test match on August 20
A worst-case scenario is that el Niño will persist, which is not unlikely