Crunch time looms for Cosatu leader
Dlamini risks being left behind as trade unions back Ramaphosa, writes Sibongakonke Shoba
SDUMO Dlamini once wittingly sang along to a song that was mocking him. At the height of the rivalry between Dlamini and former Cosatu general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi, the National Union of Metalworkers coined a song that ridiculed Dlamini’s nursing profession. “Unesi ushaywa uvalo [The nurse is running scared],” they sang at the federation’s elective congress in 2012.
Dlamini joined in as the Numsa delegates danced up and down a packed hall at Gallagher Estate in Gauteng’s Midrand.
“It was a song. When people are singing we must all sing together. I know very well that slurs and insults don’t stick,” he recalled this week.
“Bengazi ukuthi anginavalo [I knew I had nothing to fear].”
If Dlamini was not scared then, he should be shaken now as he seems set on a collision course with the majority of Cosatu’s member unions. At issue is who should succeed President Jacob Zuma.
Numsa delegates found much amusement in the episode then. But Dlamini had the last laugh. Plans to eject him from the position of Cosatu president at the 2012 congress were quashed when behind-the-scenes negotiations — that involved the ANC — resulted in both Dlamini and Vavi retaining their positions uncontested. It was a temporary entente. At the time it was clear that Vavi and Dlamini differed on whether Zuma should have a second bite as ANC boss, with Dlamini supporting his continued stay.
Despite the negotiated outcome, tensions between the two sides escalated.
Luthuli House dispatched its officials to put out the fires. Former Cosatu leaders were also called in. But the divide proved to be too wide for anyone to paper over the cracks.
The relationship between Vavi and Dlamini had reached its expiry date.
Vavi and Numsa were hauled before the federation’s central executive committee — which was dominated by Dlamini’s backers — and booted out of Cosatu.
Numsa was expelled for, among other things, extending its scope to fish in the same pond as other Cosatu affiliates.
Vavi was fired for a string of transgressions, including refusing to endorse Numsa’s expulsion.
Three years after the Numsa delegates mocked him, Dlamini returned to the venue. With Numsa and Vavi gone, he was the last man standing, and swiftly became the most powerful Cosatu president since the federation’s inception.
Vavi was replaced by his former deputy, Bheki Ntshalintshali, who has been overshadowed by the man who is the face of Cosatu.
For most of the federation’s history, general secretaries had wielded more influence than the Cosatu president, running the day-to-day business of the organisation and serving as the official mouthpiece. Those who tried to challenge them were wiped out of the federation’s history.
Dlamini’s own rise up the ranks was a consequence of a power battle between Vavi and his former president, Willie Madisha, who had tried to flex his muscle.
Dlamini and Vavi formed a strong bond before the ANC’s Polokwane conference. They successfully pushed Madisha out in 2008 after a bid by his preferred candidate, Thabo Mbeki, to secure a third term as ANC president failed spectacularly.
Dlamini, sneaked in as first deputy president, was appointed acting president when Madisha was shown the door.
Dlamini and Vavi’s proximity to Zuma strengthened their relationship.
Like all general secretaries before him, Vavi seemed invincible, and little-known Dlamini was expected to play the role of “extra”.
But Vavi grew increasingly hostile towards Zuma’s government.
As Vavi exited the Zuma inner circle, it seems he forgot to take Dlamini along; the president of Cosatu pulled in the opposite direction — and took most of the union bosses with him.
If murmurings in the corridors of Cosatu House are to be believed, Dlamini could find himself in a similar position to Vavi’s should he even attempt to swim against the labour tide on the ANC succession debate.
As one of Zuma’s close allies, there is an expectation that Dlamini will steer Cosatu towards supporting Zuma’s exwife Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma to ascend to the Union Buildings throne.
But the odds are stacked against Dlamini. ANC deputy president Cyril Ramaphosa’s campaign within Cosatu seems to be at an advanced stage.
Dlamini will have the almost insurmountable task of convincing the federation’s biggest unions — the National Union of Mineworkers, teachers’ union Sadtu, the National Education, Health and Allied Workers’ Union and police union Popcru — who all believe ANC tradition dictates that the party’s deputy should succeed its president.
Although Cosatu insiders suspect that Dlamini supports Dlamini-Zuma for president, he has been careful not to alienate the dominant voices.
He has thus far managed to project himself as a nonpartisan player, saying very little when the ANC succession subject is raised in Cosatu meetings.
At last week’s important central executive committee meeting, the federation decided against endorsing any candidate for the ANC top job.
But soon afterwards, the NUM publicly announced Ramaphosa as its choice — a move that is expected to be followed by all the big Cosatu unions in the coming weeks.
This may force Dlamini to publicly throw his weight behind Ramaphosa or face the fate that befell Vavi.
Speaking to the Sunday Times this week, Dlamini dismissed suggestions that, should the “ANC tradition agenda” win the day, it would mean he had lost control of his organisation.
“It doesn’t matter where I stand. People must appreciate that Cosatu is not an individual. It’s a federation of unions. It comprises a leadership collective. I never pronounce [my views]. I communicate the decisions of the leadership collective,” he said.
He insisted that the ANC succession debate had nothing to do with Zuma because he was on his way out.
“There is nothing like delivering Cosatu to Zuma. Zuma does not expect anybody to deliver Cosatu to him.”
But whether he admits it or not, Dlamini is walking a tightrope.
His rise to power was linked with Zuma’s and it is his proximity to the president that is now threatening to cut short his stay at Cosatu House.
He has two choices: defy his constituency and pray for a cushy ministerial post — or ditch the Zuma faction and lead the Ramaphosa campaign in order to extend his stay at Cosatu House.
His proximity to the president is threatening to cut short his stay at Cosatu House
Comment on this: write to tellus@sundaytimes.co.za or SMS us at 33971 www.sundaytimes.co.za