Don’t bet on Clinton for a stronger rand

AHEADLINE this week spoke of a Hillary Clinton presidency being a better prospect for the much troubled rand, which has plunged more than a fifth over the past two years.

But, while most of us would prefer a Clinton presidency to that of Republican nominee Donald Trump, I don’t think it’s easy to come to such a conclusion.

Whoever moves into the White House next year will have to take over the custodianship of a US economy that’s potentially on the brink of entering a much lower growth phase or, worstcase scenario, a recession.

I am betting that the rand will appreciate no matter who wins that hallowed oval office — should the forecasts of some analysts that the US is heading into a colder winter prove correct.

The US Federal Reserve would have to once again assume centre stage in stimulating the economy — which is not to say it isn’t doing so right now, given the record low borrowing costs across the Atlantic.

Evidence of a weaker-thanexpected economy will lead to one thing: the return of quantitative easing, firmly established as the panacea of all economic ills.

Blame it on the law of averages, which suggests that it is high time the US economy faced a downturn.

June this year marked the 28th consecutive quarter — or seventh year — that the world’s biggest economy had expanded. While we can all agree that the pace of that expansion was disappointing, it’s still a much better performance than that of the rest of the developed world — Europe in particular.

August economic data out of the US signalled a slowdown as US consumer spending — which accounts for some 70% of its economy — unexpectedly fell for the first time in seven months.

Corporate reports have disappointed in recent months, reflecting weak demand.

A stock such as Apple, which more than most has best captured the growth from Silicon Valley and consumerism, has seen better days.

The Americas represent more than 40% of Apple’s revenue according to Bloomberg data, while Australia and China — its second-biggest market — make up some 31%.

Since Apple’s peak towards the start of last year, the stock has declined 16%. I am taking the cooling-off in the market’s affair with the Tim Cook-led firm as evidence of a less buoyant US consumer.

High-end jeweller Tiffany’s has seen its stock fall 25% over the past two years.

Should data continue to point to further deterioration, economic expansion in the US may indeed come to an end. Economists’ doctrine says recessions typically follow as imbalances emerge.

While those characteristics aren’t in place at the moment, German bank Berenberg said the probability of a US recession

An even healthier US economy would be terrible for the rand

had risen to as much as 25%, with growth subsiding in the coming quarters.

Which brings us back to what a Clinton or Trump presidency would mean to the health of the South African economy.

Here’s my guesstimate — an estimate based on a mixture of guesswork and calculation and a very useful “get out of jail free” card: a stronger rand, should the law of averages work in my favour.

Should US growth slow significantly, I expect more monetary stimulus and in turn a firmer South African currency.

A Clinton presidency and an even healthier US economy would be terrible for the rand.

Trump and a healthy economy . . . well, he comes with so much uncertainty, surely the rand would strengthen. derbyr@sundaytimes.co.za @ronderby