SA hopeful Trump’s fiery rhetoric won’t overheat the planet
HOT TOPIC: A protester dressed as Donald Trump demonstrates outside the US embassy in London, against Trump’s stance on climate change IT has been three weeks since the entry into force of the Paris Agreement to combat climate change, and the 22nd Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change has concluded in the Moroccan city of Marrakesh.
COP22 focused on operationalising the Paris Agreement by 2020, and work has progressed in a number of areas. Parties emphasised the need to increase their collective efforts on the basis of science and equity.
With the recent US presidential elections, the “elephant in the room” at Marrakesh was the question of the US’s future participation in driving global climate action.
After China, the US is the second-largest contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions, mainly from burning fossil fuels.
The US’s nationally determined contribution submitted to the UN Framework Convention secretariat last year sets emission reduction targets of 17% below 2005 levels by 2020, towards a long-term goal of over 80% by 2050.
During President Barack Obama’s term in office the international community made unprecedented progress in climate change negotiations, culminating in the early entry into force of the Paris Agreement.
It is of concern to some that presidentelect Donald Trump has previously made statements indicating that, if elected, he would withhold his country’s support for the Paris Agreement, and possibly even withdraw from the agreement altogether.
We view these early pronouncements as serious. It is of concern that should the commitment the US made to the Paris Agreement be annulled, both in terms of its nationally determined contribution and financial support to developing countries, this may further reduce the global effort to reduce emissions.
In our analysis, the way in which the Paris Agreement is structured means it is more than able to withstand the domestic political shocks of signatory countries. It comprehensively covers all major challenges, is flexible and transparent, and infused with a nationally determined character.
The reality is that there is no viable alternative to collective multilateral action. The Paris Agreement is our best hope to achieve climate safety globally.
The robust nature of the agreement should offer political assurance to all countries, regardless of any shifts in domestic political constituencies.
The 2001 announcement by then president George W Bush that the US would not ratify the Kyoto Protocol was instructive. It unleashed international condemnation and put significant pressure on the US domestically.
It was shortly thereafter that Bush set up the Major Economies Meeting, the forerunner to what is now known as the Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate.
The MEF has played an important role in the climate change negotiations and in the entry into force of the Paris Agreement, and is expected to continue to do so.
US Secretary of State John Kerry convened an MEF meeting on the sidelines of COP22 to discuss implementing the nationally determined contributions. What was apparent from this was that the US remains committed to working with other parties to combat climate change in the spirit of cooperation and under the convention.
South Africa has adopted a cautiously optimistic approach, as it is only in January that the incoming US administration will indicate the nature of its participation in the global climate change agenda. Until then we should focus on finalising the Paris rule book, and on the key aspects of operationalisation of the agreement. This includes the issues of technology transfer and capacity building to enable developing countries to meet their climate change obligations.
If we are to achieve our goal of limiting global temperature increase to well below 2ºC and successfully meet the 1.5ºC goal, we must close ambition gaps by accelerating the pre-2020 action.
The Paris Agreement, together with the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol on substances that deplete the ozone layer, to phase down hydrofluorocarbons, as well as the outcome of the International Civil Aviation Authority meeting, have added significant momentum to our collective effort to reduce carbon emissions.
It is essential that we do not lose this momentum. In the same vein, it should not be regarded as a foregone conclusion that the international climate-change negotiations will be derailed under president-elect Trump.
Molewa is minister of environmental affairs
The elephant in the room was the US’s participation in driving global climate action