Vaulting Eskom ambition runs into reality
THERE is something about engineers that sets them apart. I remember at university they were the tough guys, the “rugger buggers” who played hard and drank hard. They were the (mainly) men who would change the world, literally.
I have a friend in what I must now call the “former” Transkei who can look back on the most incredible career. Out of sight and with inconceivable diligence, he has built roads that millions of citizens use at high speed each year, pipelines that carry drinking water to the tens of thousands of new residents in the once sleepy Mthatha. I have heard him, while fishing, explain over his cellphone to municipal officials how to locate the cause of a trip in the city’s power supply and I have listened to him explain how the planning for 250 000 new residents must look 50 years ahead.
But nowhere in South Africa is engineering more revered than at Eskom. And not just for building and maintaining power stations. Flying into Cape Town recently, we passed a transmission line that seemed to leap from mountain top to mountain top, spanning, in some cases, distances of what must have been more than 2km. Drive into Richards Bay from Durban and marvel at the pylons and lines that march into the port like an invading army kilometres wide.
These are huge achievements and, yes, Eskom engineers are awesome. But they are also dangerous. Nothing would have pleased them more than a political tide turning in their favour. The arrival at Eskom of the now departing Brian Molefe, determined to take South Africa into a new nuclear-powered future, would have got their blood racing. No more namby-pamby wind and solar. Nuclear is an engineering wet dream.
Years ago Eskom mapped out five sites along the coast where it could potentially site new nuclear plants. Two were way up the West Coast. The others were Thyspunt, just south of Cape St Francis; Bantamsklip, between Gansbaai and Cape Agulhas; and Duynefontein, next to the existing Koeberg reactors.
Bantamsklip was a good measure of Eskom’s unbridled self-confidence. Miles from anywhere, it could only have been built if a new road to carry supplies had been built from Cape Town, bypassing Hermanus. That, or a new port to take supplies. And then it would need 100km of transmission line to connect up to the grid.
But Bantamsklip, like the upper West Coast sites, has been dropped for now. Even for Eskom, it is a stride too far and too expensive. Only Thyspunt and Duynefontein survive. For the moment.
On Friday, Business Day carried a story revealing that geological analysis shows that the bedrock at Thyspunt actually lies about 16m below sea level and that it was the site of a major tectonic event about 10 000 years ago. Evidence that the site is unsuitable was “overwhelming”, scientists said, and the faults at Thyspunt should be considered “active”. And Eskom’s answer?
Typical, I’m afraid. It said it was “confident” of its seismic hazard assessment at Thyspunt. “Eskom will also apply conservative decisionmaking in the design of a future Thyspunt nuclear installation,” it was quoted as saying. In other words, Eskom knows best. A moving tectonic plate is a mere problem to be solved. Trust us.
But Eskom has lost the public trust for the moment and I suspect it will find further progress at Thyspunt impossible. Given that it has decided to go ahead and try to build a nuclear installation by 2025 (probably also impossible) despite the government’s new official view that nuclear will not be required until 2037, it will have little choice but to build a first new plant next door to Koeberg.
Another two reactors near Koeberg, close to the grid, make some sense. That is if it has the money, which is not at all clear. Eskom by now should know that while its engineering is its strong point, neither geology nor project management are. The Medupi and Kusile coal plants are a decade behind schedule.
As Molefe leaves, the engineers left behind should consider that their future lies in transmission and leave generation to the private sector and to a future mix of renewables, gas and clean coal. All are already available to South Africa in abundance. It’s the politics that makes the difference and gets an engineer’s eyes all misty. And it is politics that will have to bring the engineers back to reality.
It should know that while engineering is its strong point, neither geology nor project management are