Gigaba gets his chance to shine
Ex-ANC youth boss switched loyalty from Mbeki to Zuma
New finance minister wasn’t Zuma’s first choice for finance minister — and not even his second. His elevation could open the door to his one day occupying the highest office in the land, writes Ron Derby
WHILE Malusi Gigaba wasn’t the first, and according to others not even President Jacob Zuma’s second choice as the fourth finance minister in just over a year, those who have watched one of South Africa’s youngest cabinet members grab his new opportunity see him as a potential future leader of the party and state.
The plan is now only sullied by the fact that he takes over the National Treasury at the height of factional battles in the ANC that threaten its very future.
This week’s surprise recall of finance minister Pravin Gordhan and his deputy, Mcebisi Jonas, sent markets into a tailspin, with the rand weakening more than 8%, raising questions about South Africa’s sovereign debt ratings, which are on the cusp of a downgrade to “junk”.
Zuma hands over the keys to the Treasury to Gigaba — who stood behind favourites such as former Eskom CEO Brian Molefe — at quite possibly the worst time.
For the former ANC Youth League president, the challenge will be to ease investor concerns that his appointment just forms part of the fierce battle in the ruling alliance. And beyond that and for his own ambition, to prove to party members his ascension wasn’t made at the behest of the Gupta family.
Should Gigaba fail to ease investor concerns over the country’s fiscal policy, South Africa’s debt rating is likely to be nudged to “junk”.
This would push up the public and private sector debt costs and further weaken the rand, which would feed into higher food costs.
Should he fail to gain the party’s confidence, the end of Zuma’s term of office in 2019 may very well mean the same for the new finance minister.
“He [Gigaba] is a very good cadre of the ANC . . . but will he be trusted?” said a source who studied with Gigaba at the University of Durban-Westville. Sometimes “ambitions can get over you and kill your future”.
Gigaba served as minister of public enterprises from 2009 to 2014 before taking over as home affairs minister until this week.
“As a political animal, he thought, ‘let me take the opportunity’,” the fellow student, a former student representative council president, said.
Political analyst Mcebisi Ndletyana said the problem with Gigaba was not so much whether he had the competency to hold the position but about what we know about why Zuma removed Gordhan.
“He wanted someone who . . . will do his bidding as minister. And, unfortunately, Malusi’s conduct has raised a number of questions,” said Ndletyana.
It won’t be the first political gamble Gigaba has taken.
His three terms as youth league president were in the years of president Thabo Mbeki and he was seen as a favourite son.
It was a relationship similar to that between Zuma and Julius Malema, who as youth league president helped usher in the Zuma presidency, pushing all rivals aside.
Gigaba was able to switch allegiance when the tide had turned against Mbeki and he became a key member of Zuma’s inner circle.
Last year, he even criticised senior statesmen in the party, including Ahmed Kathrada, who had written a letter asking for Zuma to resign.
“Nobody must be allowed to talk down to the leadership of the ANC, [and] talk down to members of the ANC, because they are not the moral demigods of the ANC more than anyone else who belongs to the ANC,” Gigaba said on the sidelines of the ANC’s manifesto launch in Port Elizabeth last April.
While Gigaba’s internal ANC politics will prove a minefield to navigate, markets will look at his performance at home affairs and public enterprises.
At home affairs, his biggest faux pas was the poor handling of new visa regulations for families travelling with children, which the tourism industry said caused huge revenue losses. Former tourism minister Derek Hanekom fell out with him.
At public enterprises, critics say governance at institutions such as Eskom and Denel collapsed.
Both have been mired in corruption scandals, with the Guptas central to most.
People who worked closely with him during this period said as a minister he engaged closely with state-owned enterprises under his watch. Sometimes too closely, assuming the position of a quasi-executive chairman.
Ndletyana said Gigaba was competent and there was a time when his character was beyond reproach, but he turned to bad behaviour.
“His character is questionable, so that questions whether he can do the job appropriately. It means he is prone to misconduct, he is vulnerable to misconduct,” he said.
He wanted someone who . . . will do his bidding as minister
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