Fast-food giants no relish for investors
Low returns on capital almost certain to leave shareholders reeling
● All bets are off as to whether SA is still a fast-food nation as the country’s biggest fastfood groups battle stagnant consumption.
“The idea that fast food was bulletproof had its kinks,” said Carlo Gonzaga, the former CEO of Taste Holdings.
“If the listed numbers are not great, then the privately owned businesses are on aggregate worse. They’re small, can’t deal with the shocks and aren’t as well funded. Three or four years of pressure on disposable income has taken its toll.”
Food retailing is intensely competitive as consumers struggle in a weak economy.
But even so, more people than ever are buying ready-made food.
Famous Brands, which owns Wimpy, Steers and Debonairs, using the All Media and Products Survey, commissioned a study called “The Hunger Games” that found that in 2016, the take-up was 82% — up from 70% a decade earlier.
Former Famous Brands CEO Kevin Hedderwick has previously spoken of the potential of the fast-food sector, as consumers were increasingly “cash-rich and timepoor”, referring to the convenience of such food and double-income families.
But recently, things have changed. And as sales have come under pressure, so have companies’ share prices.
Famous Brands’ market cap has dropped from R11.1bn to R8.7bn. Spur Corporation’s market cap in 2015 was R3.5bn, and is now R2.42bn.
Taste’s share price has lost 97% of its value since peaking at 470c in July 2015, and it is running out of cash after an ambitious expansion programme to roll out Domino’s Pizza and Starbucks outlets in SA.
Grand Parade Investments, which has the licence to Burger King in SA, has decided to close international brands Dunkin’ Donuts and Baskin & Robbins, for which it had the master licence for the country. Gold Brands, which owns ChesaNyama, in August last year had its listing on the AltX suspended by the JSE after it failed to submit its annual report. It is selling ChesaNyama.
Yet the sector remains sizable. In 2017 the fast-food market in SA was worth R39bn, according to strategic market research company Euromonitor, up 8.9% from 2016. It was forecast to grow 8.6% to R42.7bn in 2018.
Gonzaga believes SA is still a fast-food nation, saying: “We’re not different to any other place in the world. Everyone is timestarved.”
What has put fast food under pressure is that five years ago you couldn’t shop at a supermarket for a meal that was cheaper than a fast-food meal. Now you can get a reasonable meal cheaper at a supermarket, said Gonzaga.
Fast-food businesses are facing rising input costs, such as electricity. And if a meal is not purchased because of power cuts, it’s a lost opportunity — and an additional meal isn’t bought another time.
“Demand-wise, we definitely have all the factors that play into a growing nation of fast-food consumers,” said Gonzaga.
But the short-term indicators are not positive. At this point there are just losers in the fast-food sector, said Keith McLachlan, a fund manager at AlphaWealth.
“The two least badly off are Spur and Famous Brands.
“They both dominate different niches and have properly integrated supply chains. The rest of them have to consider their space, their balance sheets and ability to fund existing store networks.”
If Burger King (owned by Grand Parade Investments) could localise its supply chain, it would have a reasonable chance of succeeding, said McLachlan, adding that the same principle applies to Starbucks in SA (which is owned by Taste).
“There seems to be a reasonable adoption of the brand, though they’ve overcapitalised,” he said.
“Even the big guys are struggling, but if you’re smaller it’s even tougher.”
McLachlan said operators that aren’t online have already lost the game.
Anthony Clark, an independent analyst at Small Talk Daily Research, wouldn’t want to be invested in fast food right now.
“I wouldn’t want to own a single fast-food store, but some are faring better. Spur is picking up from a low base.
“Famous Brands is large and diversified and hopefully its UK problems are behind it.” Burger King looks like it is turning the corner and possibly breaking even, “but Gold Brands is on the verge of bankruptcy” and both it and Taste should be avoided.
“If I had to invest in any food sector I’d probably go into certain food manufacturing and agriculture.
“I wouldn’t be touching fast food, though longer term it’s a great sector.”
Clark said fast-food sales had been in decline for three months. Stats SA shows that people are still buying fast food but not as often. The ancillary items are taking a hit — so the extra-large chips or the bottle of wine are not being ordered, which is often where the operators make their money.
Certain categories of fast food are particularly competitive, such as pizza and pasta, which he said were “a bloodbath” as there is significant price competition and “razor-thin margins”.
Clark said the low-end market had already been hit; now the middle market is taking strain too.
I wouldn’t want to own a single fast-food store, but some are faring better
Anthony Clark
Independent analyst at Small Talk Daily Research