All eyes on magic 60% for the ANC

Economists pin their hopes on result that could bolster reform

● President Cyril Ramaphosa will make a final bid today to secure a firm majority in Wednesday’s historic election as pressure builds on him to contain the expected fall in the ANC’s share of the vote.

With polls predicting a drop for the ANC at national level, there are increased jitters, particularly from economists and investors, about what a result below 60% would mean for the president’s reform agenda.

Ramaphosa, who will address the ANC’s closing Siyanqoba rally at Ellis Park in Johannesburg today, is expected to give the assurance that he will step up the programme to revitalise the economy and rebuild institutions decimated by state capture.

He is also expected to concede that the process of turning the country around will be long and difficult, and that there will be pockets of resistance to his agenda.

Voter turnout will be the key decider, with both the ANC and the DA struggling to get voters in their traditional support bases to say they will turn up to vote.

The future of two key provinces are at stake, with the ANC battling to keep control of SA’s economic hub, Gauteng, and the DA in danger of losing its majority in the Western Cape.

Support for the ANC has dwindled due to anger and disillusionment over revelations of mass corruption at the Zondo commission and other public inquiries, the retention of tainted individuals on the party’s parliamentary list, and declining socio-economic conditions.

Ramaphosa is the main draw card for the ANC — but other party leaders are proving to be a turn-off for undecided voters.

The DA’s internal battles could see a lower-than-usual turnout in its strongholds or a switch to smaller opposition parties.

Several polls show the DA is in danger of dropping below 50% in the Western Cape, where it gained 59.38% of the vote in 2014.

All polls reflect growth for the EFF at national level and in Gauteng, meaning that the third-biggest party could play kingmaker for the ANC and DA.

Some economists are warning that a substantial loss of support for the ANC could hamper Ramaphosa’s agenda and result in a further credit ratings downgrade.

This could make financing for SA’s troubled state-owned companies, such as Eskom and SAA, even more difficult.

There are also fears that a coalition between the ANC and the EFF could lead to more populist polices being adopted.

Independent economist Thabi Leoka said the markets were pegging their hopes on a 60% win for the ANC, as the narrative that a strong mandate for Ramaphosa would enhance reforms has grown beyond SA’s borders. The most obvious sign of this was The Economist’s endorsement of Ramaphosa in a cover story last week.

“Anything less than 60% would be seen as negative. This could mean Ramaphosa would not be able to include reformers in his cabinet and be compelled to choose weaker people and those tainted by corruption,” she said.

Many current and former ministers implicated in corruption or who belong to the ANC faction led by secretary-general Ace Magashule are at the top of the party’s national election list. This means they are guaranteed seats in the National Assembly and will be in pole position for ministerial posts if Ramaphosa’s allies do not make it to parliament.

Leoka said markets and investors have been holding back on SA until after the elections to see whether Ramaphosa is able to pursue his reforms more aggressively.

“Confidence is the first step in stimulating an economy. There will be disappointment if we don’t see reforms and also if there are no prosecutions of those implicated in corruption,” said Leoka.

A poll conducted by international research group Intellidex among local and global asset managers, stockbrokers and investment bankers showed they expect the rand, bonds and shares to rally if the ANC hits 58.3% or more.

The head of Intellidex capital markets research, Peter Attard Montalto, said though most people in the investor community were confident Ramaphosa would see out his term if elected president, they believe there is only a one-third chance of growthboosting reform after the elections.

“We need to see where reform comes from, how would reform happen and whether Ramaphosa knows how to work the state effectively to grow the economy,” he said.

The poll showed that markets were banking heavily on Tito Mboweni and Pravin Gordhan remaining at finance and public enterprises respectively, to continue stabilising the economy and reforming SOEs.

An economist at the Centre for Economic Development and Transformation, Duma Gqubule, said he believed that the elections would have a short-term impact on the markets. He said there was a false sense of optimism around Ramaphosa when the focus should be on the lack of growth in the South African economy.

The posters have shrivelled in the sun. The messages — never imaginative in the first place — are stale, repetitive and boring. The politicians, now merely going through the motions, sound like stuck records. The voters wonder whether the blooming thing will ever end. After almost a year of campaigning, they’re none the wiser. If anything, the campaign has left most people flustered and confused. It’s been a big yawn.

But be patient, dear voter. The end is nigh. Soon the nightmare will be over. The phony spectacle of complete strangers, pretending they know and care about your aspirations, will be a thing of the past. The voter is merely a stepping stone, a ticket to riches. A seat in parliament — or, better still, a chair at the cabinet table — will do nicely. It is a source of income, not an opportunity to serve. Which is why every man and his dog has formed a political party. It will be crowded at the trough. The people will be left chasing the mirage, as they have for the past 25 years. After the votes have been counted, one suspects, the daggers will be drawn. The ANC election campaign has been like a war dance, or two bulls circling each other in the kraal. Once the votes are in and victory is assured, the lap of honour will probably be forsaken as they fight for the spoils.

What’s been remarkable about the ANC campaign is how the members kept hurling insults at each other. The opposition was inside, not outside. Ace Magashule, who seems to grow more defiant with each revelation of his wrongdoing, complained that his telephone was being tapped, presumably by Cyril Ramaphosa or those working on his behalf. Magashule tramples on the party’s noble tradition of nonracialism by telling black people no white man will ever improve their lot. And probably, in what seems like a dig at Ramaphosa, he says the party’s top six are all equal and no-one is superior to the others. The man is growing more defiant by the day.

But to be president must surely count for something. It can’t just be a roomful of equals. Most times, a leader must be able to make an organisation bend to his will. He’s not a dictator but at the very least he’s first among equals. Otherwise what’s the point of being president? Why toil to reach the summit if the reward is to carry water for the likes of Magashule?

Something seems afoot here. Magashule’s language is that of the EFF: racist with an emphasis on land. He’s closer to Julius Malema than he is to Ramaphosa. Like Malema, incendiary language is his stock-in-trade. He and David Mabuza have been making overtures to Malema. There’s no doubt which partner they would prefer for a coalition should the ANC fail to get an outright majority.

By playing victim (that he’s a target of security surveillance, etc), Magashule is

following another copybook. Jacob Zuma saw the corruption charges levelled against him as part of a political conspiracy concocted by Thabo Mbeki to stop him from becoming president. Even his rape trial was initially seen as a setup by Mbeki. That victimhood propelled Zuma to high office.

Magashule, by complaining about being bugged, seems to have a nascent conspiracy on the go; it could come in handy. Ramaphosa could be accused of having had the impudence, or audacity, to investigate his comrades. Zuma has proved that corruption charges are not a bar to high office.

These elections have left voters — especially ANC supporters — in something of a quandary. If you vote for the ANC, which ANC faction are you voting for? What are you buying? How can you be sure that by voting for the ANC you’re not putting Magashule and his corrupt cronies, or even Malema, in charge? Instead of clarifying the issues, the campaign has left people confused and a bit despondent.

Ramaphosa has promised a trimmed-down corruption-fighting cabinet. Proof of the pudding will be in the eating. And that eating will come immediately after the elections. His first cabinet, his imprimatur, will be awaited with great interest. It will tell us a lot about what we need to know about our president. We will, to be a bit pretentious about it, peek into his soul. “As democracy is perfected,” HL Mencken, the American scholar, once said, “the office of president represents more and more closely the inner soul of the people.”

Ramaphosa has disappointed many by allowing flawed characters to get on the party’s parliamentary list. He’s become almost a bystander in the controversy. His defenders say that criticism is unfair because he’s not alone in taking such decisions. But how can he hope to govern even marginally successfully if his writ can’t run in his own party? He should be able to clean up his own back yard first if he wants to be taken seriously.

But the preponderance of corrupt individuals in his parliamentary caucus will limit his ability to choose a cleaner and meaner cabinet. And there’s a greater likelihood of making even more powerful enemies because everybody in this large tripartite tent — the party, the unions, the communists and the civics — are not only demanding to be consulted about cabinet appointments, they also want a piece of the action. It may maintain peace in the alliance, but it’s no way to run a country.

So we vote so that the comrades can divvy up the spoils among themselves. But vote we must. Too much sacrifice has been made by so many so that we should enjoy the privilege. And those who fail to vote surely forfeit any right to complain about government ineptitude.