Education: back to the drawing board
Education needs a total facelift. The entire education environment, preschool to postgraduate, needs to be reimagined and aligned with emerging skills requirements. Life-long learning should become an imperative, not simply a nice-to-have.
In SA, we are in a position to benefit from having large numbers of working-age people — but only if they have the appropriate skills.
The reality is that we are competing against international providers that have access to low-cost, better-schooled and productive labour. Locally, people will increasingly compete against robots, automated systems, and machines that learn and are able to perform the same activities more efficiently and cost-effectively.
In addition, we should focus on improving access to skills development as well as economic opportunities for people in the 30+ age groups.
Although we should be making all possible efforts to equip young people with the most appropriate skills and opportunities, we should also bear in mind the needs of the rest of the population.
Planners and decision-makers have to take various factors and indicators into account when they think about plausible futures. In SA, two of the indicators that are based on people numbers suggest an interesting time ahead:
● The number of people aged 30 to 59 is increasing faster than younger people; and
● Only 13% of working-age people hold a tertiary qualification.
The South African population is still growing rapidly, and projections for the next 40 years show thought-provoking trends.
The 0-19 age group, which has shown the
most significant increase over the past 65 years, is projected to stabilise and even modestly decline over the next 40 years. In the recent past, the rapid growth in this age group had SA playing catch-up in terms of providing basic schooling.
We felt the pain of not having enough teachers, schools and learning materials. Fortunately, the numbers are stabilising; we will probably be able to put more focus on the quality of basic schooling going forward.
The 20-29 age group is projected to stabilise at about 10-million. People in this group are the prime candidates for a first round of tertiary education and a first economic opportunity.
As with the 0-19 age group, this group has increased rapidly in the recent past. Higher-education providers and the economy simply could not absorb the large numbers of young people looking for opportunities to study or become economically active. Going forward, with the numbers more or less stabilising, this situation could improve.
The 30-59 age group is projected to show rapid, consistent growth, increasing from current levels of 20-million to 30-million by 2060. This is the serious-issue space.
The people in this group are the ones who should be gainfully active in the economy; they are the ones who may need a second round of higher education (or a first round, in many cases).
Providers and designers of higher education and economic opportunities will have to focus on the unique needs of this age group.
Many of them will not be able to study full-time or at a location away from their homes because they may have family responsibilities and will probably have to remain economically active while studying.
People aged 60 and older are projected to increase significantly from current levels of less than 5-million to almost 15-million by 2060.
People are living longer, mostly as a result of better living conditions and health care.
Large numbers of older people in a population create exciting new market opportunities for products and services aimed at them. However, it also creates challenges if they stop being economically active (retire) too early and have to live off their savings for a long time.
Some people suggest we should “create space” for the large numbers of young people by having older people retire at 55. If people retire too early, they may not be able to sustain themselves financially for the (now significantly longer) rest of their lives.
Significant progress has been made in providing basic schooling to everyone in SA. However, there are still many people with low levels of education.
Internationally, working age is defined as 15 to 64 years. The numbers clearly indicate that the bulk of working-age people in SA have completed fewer than 12 years of schooling.
An even more critical issue is the kind of skills that people possess. In the current and future economy, having appropriate skills is what will matter most.
In SA, as in many other parts of the world, we may be spending countless resources on giving people access to school and skillsdevelopment opportunities while focusing on outdated and inappropriate skills.
Another important aspect is that a “single dose” of post-school education will probably not be able to sustain people throughout their work life any more; multiple rounds of upskilling, side-skilling and reskilling could be required.
SA schooling may be focusing on outdated and inappropriate skills
Viljoen is a senior futurist at the Institute for Futures Research (IFR) at Stellenbosch University. The article is based on research by the IFR for Nedlac on the future of work in SA