Cyril’s ‘allies’ smell blood and are positioning themselves in case a third president falls

‘How do you envisage a post-Cyril scenario?” a senior ANC member asked me recently. I asked if he meant in five years. “No,” he said. “Sooner.” I was befuddled why someone who knows the inner workings of the ANC was contemplating President Cyril Ramaphosa not making it through his first term. Politics is brutal, but even Jacob Zuma and the Gupta ensemble lasted nine years.

I asked if he thought Ramaphosa’s detractors had a genuine shot at removing him at next year’s ANC national general council. He said he did not.

“But I do think it’s time to start thinking of what happens if he can’t cut it as president.”

He is not the only one who supported Ramaphosa’s rise to power who is now restless with the president’s “long game” approach.

The political and economic situation is dismal, causing despondency everywhere. This raises the prospects of those with political ambitions.

Ramaphosa is on the ropes, but it is far too early to start counting him out. As displayed during his question session in parliament on Thursday, the president is able to negotiate choppy waters and can survive the storms.

But his major problems are that he is facing a powerful fightback with only a handful of allies and no cover, and that he does not have a proper plan to turn around the economy. His answers in parliament on economic growth were unconvincing and incoherent.

People smell blood because Ramaphosa’s survival is dependent on conquering the fightback and halting the economic plunge, neither of which he seems able to do. He holds power in the ANC

and the state, but is outflanked and outgunned by his opponents who have recast him as a stooge of white capital.

While ANC secretary-general Ace Magashule is fortifying his camp, Ramaphosa has no backing from the party.

The ANC issued a statement this week to “reject” a national survey that found Magashule to be the least liked politician, with 11% favourability, and that pegged Ramaphosa with the highest approval rating of 62%. Clearly, Magashule has marshalled the party headquarters while the president is dangling in the wind.

Deputy President David Mabuza is keeping his head down, making no attempt to help Ramaphosa ward off his adversaries. ANC chair Gwede Mantashe was one of the president’s strongest allies but is largely silent now. So too is Paul Mashatile, the ANC treasurer-general.

Mashatile’s base, the Gauteng ANC, was the first to back Ramaphosa in his run for president. Yet they have stood back and watched him fight the flames.

Cosatu and the SACP were also Ramaphosa’s key backers. While the SACP is fighting in Ramaphosa’s corner against the EFF and the public protector, Cosatu is rather reticent.

Nobody is coming out swinging for Ramaphosa in the way that Zuma was defended for most of his presidency. It seems senior ANC leaders are unwilling to stick their necks out because they are mindful of their prospects should Ramaphosa crash and burn. There are no obvious successors to Ramaphosa, which means everyone has a shot.

The next ANC leadership race will be another dogfight, so those with ambitions are hedging their bets and looking out for their own interests. As the opposition parties are nowhere near to taking power, new challengers will enter the fray.

Former deputy finance minister Mcebisi Jonas is using his currency as a state capture whistleblower to position himself as a nonpolitical alternative through his new book, After Dawn.

Jonas declined nomination for the ANC national executive committee as well as all posts Ramaphosa offered him in the state.

As senior journalist Carol Paton pointed out in Business Day, Jonas’s book regurgitates common wisdom about SA’s economic problems but does not provide solutions to effect reforms. But it is being aggressively marketed in a US-style campaign model as a post-New Dawn tome, espousing a new social compact that would be implausible under this ANC leadership.

While some people have started thinking about a back-up plan, Ramaphosa still has the majority of the nation behind him. But if he keeps faltering, Magashule’s faction will gain traction and consolidate with the EFF. The ANC will maul itself, causing major political upheaval.

Those who are gunning for Ramaphosa’s job envisage a fall of government, which could have catastrophic consequences. We had two smooth transitions when Thabo Mbeki and Zuma were recalled but there is no guarantee a third will play out the same way.

The economy cannot endure more drama and political instability. At a farewell event for Constitutional Court judge Edwin Cameron, former deputy chief justice Dikgang Moseneke warned the judiciary to prepare to protect the public from “the next despot”. “There’s another lurking somewhere,” he said.

It is unlikely that Ramaphosa could be removed any time soon but there are vultures watching, ready to take flight.

Society must defend the national interest, not individuals. It is not in the national interest for the president to fall.

If only he would just stand up.