Cabinet is going dangerously off the rails of good sense

As Covid-19 cases pile rapidly up to the 10,000 mark in SA, the government has lost control of the undeniably difficult balance between caring for the sick and encouraging enough economic activity to be able to pay for the health-care workers necessary to care for the coronavirus sick in the first place. “There is no such thing as a choice between managing the pandemic versus protecting the economy,” says professor Francois Balloux, director of the widely admired genetics institute at University College London and a voice of sanity in the Covid-19 shouting match.

“Health and the economy are closely linked. The correlation between per capita GDP and health (life expectancy) is essentially perfect. If the Covid-19 pandemic leads to a global economic collapse, many more lives will be lost than Covid-19 would ever be able to claim.”

What applies to the world applies to its components individually too. It was Balloux who I first read plausibly arguing that while “lockdowns are effective at reducing transmission … [they] are not a long-term solution”.

Writing in mid-March, he said: “Lockdowns could be considered a delaying measure, equivalent to getting a medical certificate to avoid sitting an exam. It may do the trick for now, but all the hard work still lies ahead. Infectious disease epidemiology is about minimising the numbers of years of life lost. It’s a numbers game.”

In other words, if I die now at 67 it’s a better epidemiological result than you dying at 45. It’s just a fact, but one lost on the cabinet, judging by the arbritary rules it makes.

President Cyril Ramaphosa having initially won the short-term battle to “flatten the curve” and win a reprieve to get the health services ready, the services appear to still not be ready. That’s why level 4 feels the same as level 5. The primary concern of most ministers now is to save themselves. When the Covid-19 surge hits in late August they’ll be able to say they held the line on a hard lockdown. Sorry you’re sick, but at least you weren’t sick in April. Sorry you’re starving, but at least you’re not sick.

Having failed to take advantage of the delay it may now be too late to catch up. In the Eastern Cape, nurses are literally running away from suspected Covid-19 patients because they don’t have enough protective gear.

As for economic activity? Trade & industry minister Ebrahim Patel might allow more e-commerce but he isn’t going to take on the securocrats in the cabinet for much more economic relaxation. Basically we’re screwed, more or less until public sector salaries start being paid late or not at all. It’ll happen, but it’s not about health any more.

A friend in KwaZulu-Natal was sent this note on Friday by a specialist at St Augustine’s, the Netcare hospital in Durban closed a few weeks ago after staff were infected with the virus: “We are having a very hard time,” the doctor wrote, explaining that patients with Covid-19 have to be in solitary isolation in a six-bed ward.

“Multiple hospitals being shut down because [they] have Covid patients, the other hospitals are full because patients have to be 1 [patient] in huge 6bed ward, so now if you get sick, nowhere to go. Our hospital, the biggest in Durban, stands empty and shut, we not even allowed in to access our files and patient notes and computers. They gave us 1hr notice to go!!! Won’t tell us when we can open. Patients are desperate.”

That’s what happens when politicians run emergencies. For example in the UK, there are more than 30,000 National Health Service acute beds standing empty, the editor of The Spectator reports.

Nonetheless, in the spirit of trying to be positive, a friend and I have compiled a list of rules that might govern a lockdown, still strict, but where ministers don’t decide what we can do. We replace levels 4, 3, 2 and 1.5 with a list of things you can’t do.

No gatherings (two or more people) of any kind, for any reason. No competitive sport. All shops, schools, offices and factories restricted from opening without strict controls on hygiene, access control and distancing.

Hard lockdown for over-65s and the immune-compromised. No work outside the home that can be done inside the home. Borders closed until November 1.

No sit-down meals in restaurants. Exercise from 6am to 9am and 5pm until 8pm. Adequate safety precautions for public transport. No travel between provinces. No hospital visits. No visiting nursing homes and retirement villages. No smoking inside the home. No drinking outside the home. Curfew from 8pm until 5am.

Easy to police, and now let’s open the entire economy. So when our kids ask why they go to school under a tree in 2030 we can at least say we tried.