For opposition, stayaways must be target
With all the internal drama that is going on in the ANC, it is easy for political observers and commentators to ignore important developments taking place in the opposition. While all eyes were on the all-important special ANC national executive committee virtual meeting yesterday, former Johannesburg mayor Herman Mashaba was launching his own political party, ActionSA. It was a relatively low-key affair, largely because of social distancing. The Black Like Me hair products founder would probably have preferred a massive event, held at a huge auditorium, as a demonstration of the large following he claims to have amassed since quitting as Johannesburg mayor in a huff following his falling out with the DA.
Since that breakdown, when the then DA leader Mmusi Maimane also quit and the party lost control of its coalition government in the Johannesburg metro, the second-largest political party in the country by votes has been through its own transformation.
Its interim leader, John Steenhuisen, looks destined to be confirmed as the new leader when the DA holds its virtual federal congress in October.
Will these developments bring about any change in the political landscape? Only an ANC supporter whose loyalty is as blind as that of a fan of an underperforming soccer club like Orlando Pirates can deny that huge numbers of voters in the ruling party’s traditional constituencies are looking for new political homes.
After grudgingly voting for the ANC in the last election in the hope that President Cyril Ramaphosa would turn things around, many are gutted by the Covid corruption scandals that mostly implicate party cadres and their relatives.
It is not uncommon to hear participants on radio shows talking about “the need to remove these guys” and to hear them wondering what the alternative should be. This is the task confronting Steenhuisen and Mashaba: convincing disgruntled traditional ANC numbers to not just stay away from the polls in protest (as they have mostly done in the last three elections) but to come out and vote for them.
The DA’s strategy would be much clearer once the party has held its congress and its leadership has been announced. The assumption, following the bloody nose it got at the hands of the Freedom Front Plus in the last election, is that Maimane’s departure and the ascendance of Steenhuisen mean that the party will aim to consolidate its base among white, coloured and Indian voters.
Mashaba, on the other hand, seems to be targeting specific sections of ANC and DA traditional bases. Initially he appeared to be paying all his attention to Gauteng, where he has some following given his reputation as “Mr Delivery” during his tenure as Johannesburg mayor. But more recently he has been talking up his party’s chances in the City of Cape Town.
Of course next year’s local government elections — if they do take place — will be the ultimate test of his strength.
His calculations seem to have already told him that, despite his relative popularity in the city, his ActionSA will not be able to win Johannesburg on its own. His best bet is for the party to be part of a coalition government. Hence his decision not to run for mayor.
Mashaba says his target is to bring down the ANC at national level and, therefore, he aims to be the face of his party in the 2024 national elections. But is the disappointment with the ANC large enough to bring the party below 50% in four years’ time?
What would make those who shun the party run to Mashaba instead of staying at home, or scattering their votes among other “small parties”?
When he set out to establish the new political party, Mashaba promised to break with the traditions of established parties. He promised to bring in new blood, with new ideas on how to conduct politics, and fix the party.
However, a cursory look at his newly announced leadership structure suggests that it is dominated by former DA operatives with a few former ANC politicians. The danger for him is that they may be coming into the new party with the same practices and traditions that have become baggage for the established parties. This crippled other political enterprises such as COPE and AgangSA.
SA clearly needs a strong opposition, for it is only when those PR in power fear that they can be voted out that they feel pressed to deliver quality service to the citizens. But for opposition parties to be seen as a viable alternative, they should make themselves attractive to potential voters who choose to stay at home in protest against the ANC.