Covid still at the gate, but the country can’t stand another lockdown

On day 213 of our national lockdown, today, the bad news appears to be that a resurgence of the pandemic is well under way. The unknown is how we will handle it as a country with a broken economy and a state whose performance could charitably be described as “uneven”. There is no more certain indicator of the persistence of the Covid menace than the “excess deaths” report issued weekly by the South African Medical Research Council. From October 7 to 13, for example, “excess deaths” topped 10,109, well above a projected 8,860. The report prompted health minister Zweli Mkhize to remind provinces of the need for strict surveillance of their Covid-19 situation and numbers, and their being able to mount a rapid response in the form of quarantines and contact tracing.

This week, Mkhize noted a 9.1% increase in new cases over the past week and a 10.7% rise over two weeks, which will be presented to the National Coronavirus Command Council for it to take appropriate steps. The public is watching, anxious that the government could do the unthinkable and slam the brakes on our emergence from the Covid-19 nightmare by dragging us all the way back to level 5, in a worst-case scenario.

It seems unimaginable that our politicians would put what remains of our economy to the sword by reintroducing a hard lockdown, even as our industries battle to gain traction in the new, stilted business environment of onerous protocols.

In the words of South African Medical Research Council president Dr Glenda Gray, “If we go into level 5 lockdown again we will break the economy … We can’t afford to devastate families any further so we have to find a balance where we are able to slow transmission, open the economy and keep the hospitals open, and the only way is to ensure that everybody commits to NPI [nonpharmaceutical intervention],” by washing hands, sanitising and social distancing.

Yet everywhere there are signs of a growing carelessness in personal and social behaviour. Bars staying open at all hours, clubs offering teens cut-price drinks, people in public without masks: all of them signs that people no longer regard Covid-19 as a threat. It’s become a disease that largely happens to other people.

Missing in this selfish attitude is a realisation that if

Covid-19 becomes unmanageable and overwhelms our health system, we will all be losers as the government could be forced to take highly unpopular steps.

This wave of ennui has been assisted in great measure by a government better at making rules and declaring activities out of bounds than it is in carrying through its promises. Red tape and officiousness, and the inevitable theft of public funds, ensured that millions went to their beds hungry. Arbitrary and opaque decision-making, chiefly the ludicrous bans on tobacco and exercise, led to a bizarre situation in which a jog became illegal, but a pointless day-long stroll around a mall was within regulations. Schools were shut and, inexplicably, also the feeding schemes that are a part of them.

Now, as we face new Covid-19 challenges, we do so knowing that Mkhize has chosen to “strengthen” his ministerial advisory committee by dropping all dissident voices from its ranks, among them some of the top experts on the disease.

Increasingly, we are asked to take the government at its word alone.

A case in point is the “red list” of countries whose residents may not visit SA. Unsurprisingly, the list — which includes the US and UK, both major sources of tourists — has ankle-tapped efforts to revitalise tourism, ensuring that that which we claim to want to achieve will remain unachievable. The “science” behind it is questionable, at best.

South Africans dare not let down their guard as infections tick up. Action against PPE scoundrels will give some hope that the government has learnt lessons from the hard lockdown, and will be welcomed as long overdue by a public who increasingly regard Covid-19 as a case of wolf having been called once too often — at their expense.

South Africans dare not let down their guard as infections tick up