What’s with Ramaphosa’s plan — Thabo Mbeki

If you have never read the Great Barrington Declaration, signed at the town of that name in Massachusetts at the beginning of last month by three eminent scientists from the universities of Oxford, Harvard and Stanford, then you probably should.

Helpfully short, the declaration calls for calm in the face of the coronavirus pandemic and encourages governments to care for populations vulnerable to

Covid and let the rest live their lives.

“Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short- and long-term public health,” the declaration reads. “The results (to name a few) include lower childhood vaccination rates, worsening cardiovascular disease outcomes, fewer cancer screenings and deteriorating mental health — leading to greater excess mortality in years to come, with the working class and younger members of society carrying the heaviest burden.”

Hard to disagree, but then the trio got themselves into trouble. In the absence of a vaccine, they wrote: “Our goal should therefore be to minimise mortality and social harm until we reach herd immunity.”

The declaration was condemned as a capitalist tool by some and plain foolish by scientists, including Dr Anthony Fauci, Donald Trump’s adviser and nemesis, an immunologist who has run the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases since 1984. But it struck a chord in a world dismayed at the knee-jerk resort to harsh lockdowns by governments that claim to be “following science” but which, like ours here in SA, ignore their own scientific advice when they disagree with it.

The declaration, though, remains a useful tool in the debate beginning to rumble again in our country as the number of Covid infections ticks up and as Europeans are hit by a savage return of the virus at the start of their winter. Will a second wave here be as bad?

I have not seen a persuasive argument that there will not be a second wave, but we still don’t know enough about the virus to simply rule it out.

The question then, as before, would be what to do about it. President Cyril Ramaphosa is due to address the nation on the matter next week and he is bound to warn us to remain vigilant and careful. I doubt he will repeat the errors of his clique and threaten a new lockdown. The economic consequences would be immediate and dire.

But as South Africans we need to find middle ground in the political argument about Covid. The Barrington trio were right about other serious diseases being ignored because of Covid. It happened here and may well explain many of the excess deaths some people eagerly ascribe to the pandemic.

Equally, the conventional view that washing hands and wearing masks in public helps in some degree to protect people seems perfectly sound advice given the circumstances.

What we need to watch out for when Ramaphosa speaks this coming week are efforts to push back some of the easing we have reached. He should not try to stop young people gathering and having fun and he should not under any circumstances make the wearing of masks compulsory. Both would be impossible to police properly and the virus is, anyway, well settled in the population.

A higher level of lockdown, nationally or at a provincial level, would be an economic obscenity and a political outrage. Our numbers do not remotely warrant it. Even level 1 is needlessly destructive. We should be welcoming tourists from anywhere and looking after our economy. There is nothing an infected visitor can do to alter the course of Covid in this country.

Don’t forget that we locked this country down to buy time for the health services to prepare for the winter Covid peak. By and large they coped pretty well and the peak turned out not to be as bad as feared and by now the authorities have had even more time to prepare. Can we at least take it for granted that we are better prepared now than in March?

And the numbers are not at all bad. We have the 13thhighest number of cases in the world but our death rate to Covid per every one million of us is 330. On this measure we don’t even crack the global top 30.

Obviously, if you have to choose between denial and the prospect of a second wave, face the prospect. But we have the beds and the ventilators and the personal protective equipment to cope with whatever comes our way. We know what treatments work.

Obviously, too, the virus is way ahead of us and cannot safely be second-guessed. But that fact demands humility, not political bluster. It demands diligent, patient leadership and a regard for the people around you. We are not European and rich. We cannot lock this country down again.

A higher level of lockdown, nationally or at provincial level, would be an economic catastrophe and political outrage