Voters must beware of coalitions in the metros

The DA is back running the metro in Tshwane. The ANC is facing a real prospect of losing the mayoral chain in Johannesburg. These are the latest episodes in the long-running drama of political instability that has been playing out in a number of hung municipalities since the last local government elections held in 2016.

As the country gears up for fresh municipal elections next year, the major lesson we would have learnt is that SA is not good at coalition governing.

In the run-up to the 2016 polls, and to a certain extent the 2019 general election, coalition governments were all the rage — with political analysts and leaders of opposition parties saying coalitions would save this country from the vagaries of one-party dominance.

The outcomes of the 2016 elections left proponents of coalition governments elated. In them, they saw an opportunity for dress rehearsals for that ultimate day when the ANC fails to win over 50% of the national vote.

The experience since then, however, has been dismal. The Nelson Mandela Bay metro is in tatters, due largely to the instability at leadership level caused by fragile coalitions.

In the capital city, a DA-led and EFF-supported coalition government seemed to be doing well for some time until a fallout between the parties caused an implosion and the subsequent takeover of the metro by administrators appointed by the provincial government.

The turmoil has had direct and negative consequences for residents, with some areas complaining about service delivery grinding to a halt. After a court victory last week, the DA has been able to form a new coalition government, working with smaller parties such as the Freedom Front Plus and the ACDP. There are no guarantees, however, that mayor Randall Williams’s administration will survive long enough to witness the next elections.

Also fragile is the coalition that installed the ANC’s Geoff Makhubo as successor to former Johannesburg mayor Herman Mashaba. Makhubo’s party has had a fallout with one of its partners, the Patriotic Alliance, founded and led by Gayton McKenzie.

The ANC recently announced that it was ending its relationship with the PA after McKenzie fired the member of the mayoral committee for economic development and replaced him with another member of his party when such appointments can only be legally made by the mayor.

For the ANC-led coalition to have a majority in the council, it needs 136 seats. Assuming that the other members of the coalition do not leave and that the ANC retains the two seats that are up for grabs in the upcoming by-elections, the ANC would still need another seat to maintain that majority.

Its opponents are smelling blood. On learning of the fallout between the ANC and the PA, EFF leader Julius Malema wondered out loud on social media if this was not an opportune moment to call for a vote of no confidence in Makhubo’s administration. The DA, too, should be watching with interest and would probably wait for the outcomes of this week’s by-elections before deciding whether to strike.

It is possible that Makhubo will not be going to next year’s local government elections as mayor of Johannesburg.

Coalition governments have their place and seem to be working well in many other jurisdictions. But the experience of the past four years in SA suggests that perhaps our politics is not yet mature enough for our politicians to make them work here. Even those parties who enter long-term pacts to work together in those areas where there are hung councils seem to contravene those pacts at the slightest provocation.

It is for this reason that at next year’s elections, it would be important for the electorate to make decisive choices over whom they want to govern which municipalities.

The leadership paralysis that has all but collapsed the Nelson Mandela Bay metro, the instability that is threatening the long-term survival of Tshwane, and the political uncertainty over Johannesburg should not be allowed to continue past the next elections.

These metro councils are crucial if we are to recover quickly from the economic crisis we find ourselves in following the Covid-19 outbreak. Without stable cities with clear policies, even the best economic recovery plan in the world would not be able to rescue SA.