DA’s new leader faces an early test and a slim window of opportunity
It’s hard to believe that it was just on a year ago that Mmusi Maimane vacated his leadership of the Democratic Alliance amid a flurry of highprofile — and damaging — resignations. Along came Covid-19 and, almost 370 days later, the official opposition finally elected its new leader, John Steenhuisen, at a slick virtual event choreographed in almost every respect.
For the DA faithful, the eventual election of a leader is a relief. The leadership vacuum created by Maimane’s departure was filled with recriminations and no shortage of internal bickering. At the very least, Steenhuisen represents a fresh start for a DA that had failed to live up to its own lofty expectations of increasing its electoral footprint and threatening the ANC nationally.
The massive 80% victory margin secured by Steenhuisen presents him with an opportunity to begin his new term in office with greater security and the knowledge that any factional issues will not threaten him — at least in the short term.
Still, Steenhuisen inherits a party with a very short timeline in which to re-establish itself as SA’s preeminent opposition force.
In the next week, thousands of South Africans go to the polls in the country’s first local government byelections since the start of Covid. Within another nine months, a full-scale local election is likely to be under way. So, within just a few days, Steenhuisen’s appeal will be tested. Although the time frame is short, the DA will need to perform credibly to reinforce its new captain.
But, whatever the sample votes in a few wards indicate, the real test will be in the second half of
2021 when the DA defends the local councils it controls and seeks to expand its footprint. For its new leader to face such a critical election so soon is daunting. Should he not be able to secure a growth path for the party — even moderately — the road to the 2024 national elections may be very rough.
With little time to spare, the party clearly has to face a number of challenges, some of which have contributed to its lacklustre recent performance at the polls. For Steenhuisen, these issues will make or break his leadership.
In recent years, the DA has faced a growing narrative that it serves the interests of minority groups, curtails the advancement of its own black leaders and promotes a policy agenda that entrenches inequality. It’s a damaging narrative perpetuated by both the ANC and EFF amid the cut and thrust of political activity, and often echoed in the media and among the more antagonistic analysts.
Once such a narrative takes root and is used to great political effect in a country where weaponising race has become part of the prevailing political culture, it’s tough to negate. And that’s the key challenge for the DA.
To this end, the party has to find a successful way to rebut such a narrative. It requires a public relations machine that manages a response not through its own competing vitriol but with a subtlety and conviction that has often eluded the party. And its messaging has to be not only on-point but coordinated across all its platforms and public representatives. Any slippage on social media or in public comments will simply reset the party on the starter blocks.
There’s nothing new here. Over the past few years, the party simply has not been able to effectively communicate to its existing base (minorities) while substantially attracting new black voters.
It shed white (and more conservative) votes in
2019 while failing to make meaningful inroads into the black vote. In an increasingly tense and polarised political atmosphere, this is clearly tough to achieve — but not impossible.
To this end, the DA will have an especially tough task — that of explaining its liberal, “nonracial” approach to economic wellbeing and redress as adopted in its recent policy conference.
Again, this is a tough sell when the narrative from the hegemonic and nationalist forces continues to champion racially prescribed advancement in almost all aspects of economic and social policy.
One could almost argue that the DA has deliberately chosen to swim upstream in presenting its reworked economic philosophy to the country. Normally, when a political party has to explain its policy or world view, the fundamentals are either too academic or nuanced to be fully absorbed by an electorate not necessarily well versed in the detail of ideological fine print.
In the DA’s case, this remains a challenge. But observers watching the party’s virtual congress would have noted a particularly impressive contribution from Gwen Ngwenya, the DA’s head of policy. In a five-minute inset, Ngwenya presented a compelling explanation of the DA’s decision to move away from defining economic redress in racial terms.
If the DA can take that messaging and package it successfully on the campaign trail, it may be able to overcome some of the “narrative” abuse that will clearly be used against it.
This difficulty can be offset — to some degree — by taking the broad DA economic and social policy platform and translating it into workable solutions for a concerned citizenry.
These are but a few of the problems facing Steenhuisen. Since the end of the Maimane era, South African politics has shifted. The new leader now has to battle Herman Mashaba’s Action SA — a new party that will fish in similar ponds to the DA for the urban electorate.
A more populist Mashaba may well be a more attractive option for a segment of the DA’s target market. And Julius Malema’s populist style of protest politics continues to suck media oxygen from the more urbane DA.
In addition, though narratives can be falsely created, the DA has often had its own problem of optics. Though it is arguably the most non-racial
party in the country in terms of its diverse voter base, its leadership elites are still not representative of the broader SA.
The party prefers to look past the need to “window-dress” in terms of its public face — and the election of Steenhuisen is a symptom of this — but optics do matter.
The party will therefore continue to face this criticism, which may therefore keep Steenhuisen on the defensive on an issue that is a potential weak link for the party.
One solution here is for Steenhuisen to embrace his defeated opponent, Mbali Ntuli. Ntuli remains a key asset of the party and it may be time for bold leadership that takes the vanquished opponent right into the frontlines of the party.
Still, Steenhuisen and the DA do have one major trump card. That’s the dismal state of the nation gifted to them by the ANC. With the evaporation of “Ramaphoria” and the continued Covid, corruption and broader economic malaise, this really has to be the DA’s best shot at a reboot and restoration of voter interest. The party’s message of giving power to the people as opposed to a delinquent state can be very effective.
The DA has often squandered its opportunities in the recent past. Steenhuisen has a window of opportunity that has to be grasped quickly.
In politics, nothing succeeds like success, and anything less than that in terms of electoral support will weigh heavily on any greater aspirations for the official opposition.
Should Steenhuisen not secure a growth path for the party in the local government elections next year — even moderately — the road to the 2024 national elections may be very rough