Ramaphosa would like to nail Tito to his office chair

President Cyril Ramaphosa gave an emphatic vote of confidence in finance minister Tito Mboweni on Friday afternoon. Responding to a question by Sunday Times political editor Sibongakonke Shoba, Ramaphosa flatly dismissed speculation that Mboweni was on his way out and that the president and his advisers were scrambling to find a new finance minister ahead of what some insiders say is an imminent cabinet reshuffle.

Rumours of Mboweni being in the departure lounge of the executive date as far back as 2018, soon after Ramaphosa begged him to take up the post following then finance minister Nhlanhla Nene’s sudden resignation. In political circles, Mboweni’s appointment was always understood to be a stop-gap measure and that, in time, the president would find a suitable longer-term replacement. Mboweni has never really hidden the fact that he was content with life outside the government and that he is sometimes frustrated by the restrictions that come with being in the cabinet.

In May last year he tweeted: “No so long ago, I was a free man, no political constraints. Then I agreed to join government. Tjooo! Free but not free! You have to obey the majority/collective decisions! Sometimes it feels like swallowing a rock!”

Predictably, a new round of rumours about his departure started circulating soon afterwards, along with the story that he had reminded Ramaphosa of their supposed deal that he would not be finance minister for long. It was said at the time that the president persuaded him to stay on because the country was now confronted with the Covid-19 pandemic.

But the speculation rose to fever pitch in recent weeks as Mboweni prepared for his 2021 budget speech, which he delivered on Wednesday. It would be his last, some commentators predicted, while others went so far as to name his possible replacements.

By responding as he did on Friday, Ramaphosa would have hoped that he was killing the speculation once and for all, and helping to reassure the markets about leadership stability in the National Treasury.

He must have also calculated that it would send a strong message that Mboweni and the National Treasury still enjoy his strong backing despite the fact that they are at the receiving end of constant criticism even from among Ramaphosa’s supporters in the ANC and the wider alliance, as well as from within the cabinet.

Whether a cabinet reshuffle is imminent or not, the reality is that the president has little option but to keep his current finance minister.

Given the enormity of the task the National Treasury faces in bringing about the reforms that Ramaphosa promises will help to turn the country’s economic fortunes around, a replacement for Mboweni would have to be a political heavyweight; someone who had the same kind of clout as he does and could stand up to critics both in the cabinet and Luthuli House when their demands go against the interests of the fiscus. And there aren’t many people like that around.

While Reserve Bank governor Lesetja Kganyago, correctly described this week by the Financial Mail as “a model of probity and excellence”, would definitely be welcomed with jubilation by the financial markets and the public, his biggest drawback in the portfolio would be the fact that he is not an elected member of the ANC’s influential national executive committee. This is the political structure in which most policy battles are fought and won.

Within the NEC, there are very few options for Ramaphosa. If Mboweni were to decide he had had enough despite the president’s insistence that he stay on, potential replacements would include the likes of health minister Zweli Mkhize, environmental affairs minister Barbara Creecy and Mboweni’s deputy minister, David Masondo.

While Creecy did well in the finance portfolio as MEC in Gauteng, she lacks the political gravitas needed for this job at national level. Appointing Mkhize wouldn’t be ideal at a time when he is leading the country’s battle against Covid-19. Besides, some in the president’s inner circle consider Mkhize a likely challenger for the presidency come the next ANC national conference.

Although the ANC’s allies on the Left would most likely favour Masondo, his appointment might meet scepticism in the markets.

So the most likely scenario is that Ramaphosa will stick with Mboweni, whom he described “as doing an extremely good job”, as long as possible.