Ramaphosa chose the ANC, not the country, with his reshuffle

In prioritising his power base within the ANC by shifting allies into critical positions in the executive, moving opponents out and retaining neutral but ineffective ones to secure a second term as ANC leader, President Cyril Ramaphosa spectacularly missed the point as SA faces its biggest crisis in modern history.

Even if he wins a second term in the ANC after this reshuffle, he might lose the upcoming local elections as well as the next national poll. Trying to secure a second term in the ANC, and on that basis a second term as the country’s president, is simply the wrong political strategy for this crisis.

This strategy is based on the political reality before the Covid health, financial and social crises, which have been compounded by the recent looting, arson and fatal violence unleashed by supporters of former president Jacob Zuma, who were protesting against his jailing for contempt of court after he refused to account for corruption at the Zondo commission into state capture. Political realities in SA have dramatically changed since these cataclysmic events.

The current cabinet and executive, as well as the ANC’s own national executive committee, do not have the skills, ideas and political will to overcome SA’s multiple crises.

In fact, the problem is that many of them are stuck in a taxpayer-funded parallel universe and fail to see that the country is in deep crisis.

Others, trapped in a Cold War ideological time warp,

The cabinet reshuffle is like rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic, rather than fixing the gaping hole in Ship SA. The reshuffle will ultimately prove to be futile

oppose pragmatic strategies to tackle the crisis, while yet others are looking only at lining their pockets.

The magnitude of SA’s crises has overtaken the ANC’s internal politics, and the party will not come close to tackling our intractable problems.

The cabinet reshuffle is the equivalent of rearranging deck chairs on the sinking Titanic, rather than fixing the gaping hole in Ship SA. The reshuffle will ultimately prove to be futile.

This is a historic moment which will transform Ramaphosa either into a great or a pedestrian leader. A great political leader chooses to govern in the widest interests of the country, not the party. And if there is a choice between rescuing the party or the country, the leader will choose the latter, even if it means being rejected by their own party.

Ramaphosa has to choose between the ANC and SA. The ANC which elected him has become a danger not just to SA’s prosperity, but to the country’s very survival.

By choosing the interests of the ANC over the country, Ramaphosa may retain the ANC presidency in the short term but lose the country’s presidency in the next elections.

He and the party are very likely to lose popular support and fail to secure a majority, thus requiring a coalition to govern.

To secure a second term as president of SA, Ramaphosa should have chosen to prioritise the country’s interests above those of the ANC.

Clearing out the deadwood, even if it means losing the ANC presidency, should be Ramaphosa’s route to a second term as the country’s president, not through the ANC.

On the face of it, such a route may look like political suicide for Ramaphosa. It may kill off his career in the ANC, but it will rejuvenate his political career outside the party.

If Ramaphosa had fired most of the deadwood and brought in new, more capable people — bringing new ideas and hope to SA — it is very likely that he would have faced a rebellion in the ANC, with many of his opponents trying to dislodge him from the leadership. Yet this is what he should have done.

Had he gone this route, unleashing a rebellion, he could then have taken on his opponents within the ANC head-on — a battle he would have won given his strength in the party now. But if he lost such a battle, he could have formed another party.

In such a scenario, Ramaphosa could, like former president Nelson Mandela, appeal beyond the ANC to all South Africans — the majority of whom, including ordinary ANC members and supporters, would support him if the ANC ejected him for doing the right thing: getting rid of the corrupt, bringing in capable new people and pushing ahead with stalled new growth policies.