Fears over approaching ‘Covid polls’
Ramaphosa criticised for recklessness in chaotic Soweto rally
The five weeks of campaigning before the November 1 local elections could spawn superspreader events that lead to a fourth wave of Covid-19, say experts.
This follows chaotic scenes in Soweto last weekend when President Cyril Ramaphosa was mobbed by hundreds of people who disregarded social distancing.
The ANC’s Pule Mabe said the event showed how difficult it would be to campaign in the normal way, and the DA’s Siviwe Gwarube warned of a repeat of events during March and April in India “where they had elections and immediately after that they were dealing with an unprecedented number of infections”.
But Mandisa Mbali, a health-focused historian at the University of Cape Town (UCT), said millions faced enduring “existential threats” involving access to food, water and sanitation. “Covid-19 is not necessarily at the top of most people’s agendas. For many poor and working-class South Africans, other issues threatening their health may be of much greater immediate priority.”
For this reason, “many will be willing to meet with political leaders to share their desire to lead a dignified life, free from poverty”, she said.
Wits University vaccinologist professor Shabir Madhi said campaigning would be “the riskiest period with regard to possible superspreader events, particularly if electioneering is allowed to take place in poorly ventilated indoor places — irrespective of the number of people”.
On the upside, he said the campaign coincides with the subsiding of the third wave, with developing community immunity and the rollout of vaccinations. “There is likely [to be] substantial protection against severe disease in a large proportion of the community, even should there be a resurgence”.
Madhi added: “Consequently, it is unlikely that we will experience an overwhelming of health services, although unnecessary loss of life from Covid is still a reality if there is irresponsible behaviour by political parties and their supporters.”
After his tour of Soweto, Ramaphosa apologised to the media for the overcrowding. “But this is what happens when there is an election campaign and I think we will need to find better protocols of how to navigate our way around situations like that. We are going to find that this is the case around the country, people will want to throng.”
Mabe said Soweto had been an example
of “an inability at times to get people to exercise the required social distancing. The fact that we can no longer gather in larger numbers and convene rallies like in the past is a challenge and makes things difficult for us.”
Gwarube said the police and Electoral Commission of SA had to ensure compliance with regulations. “Otherwise we will find ourselves in a situation like in India. It’s selfish and short-sighted for political parties to put people’s lives in danger in that way.”
EFF treasurer-general Omphile Maotwe said the ANC was being reckless by insisting on campaigning during the pandemic. “All of these gatherings and rallies are superspreader events and it is going to be challenging to turn our people away. We are leaving it to God to intervene because you know us African people, we like physical contact.”
The IFP’s Velenkosi Hlabisa said the party had moved its campaigning online. “We are
used to the direct contact method but now we have to rely on social media to win the voters. The challenge is going to be reaching the older generation, which are not so techsavvy, they still believe in the traditional way of doing things.”
Xubera Institute for Research and Development political analyst Xolani Dube said he was suspicious about the relaxation on the number of people at gatherings just before the campaign and criticised Ramaphosa for his comments in Soweto. “I heard Ramaphosa saying he was happy that people were social distancing and wearing masks and I just feel that this man is taking us for granted and not respecting our intelligence,” he said.
“I think this is how they operate because for 27 years they have not been respecting the laws governing this country.”
And how might the pandemic shape voting patterns? According to Mbali, “local issues
are very important in local government elections”, which means this is unlikely to be a “poll on the national government’s success or failure in containing new infections and ensuring health-system resiliency”.
However, “fairness in the distribution of state resources to combat Covid-19 may partly shape South Africans’ overall perceptions of the ruling party”. She said disgruntlement over Covid-related corruption was a factor, especially for the middle class, as was the fact that “the prospect of the elimination of the Covid-19 social grants is controversial, especially given its impact on the wellbeing of the poor and marginalised”.
Then again, some might not even go to the polls for fear of getting sick. Professor Howard Phillips, also a historian at UCT, said: “Reluctance to stand in voting queues or a crowded building may be deterrents to voting, especially among older South Africans.”