POKING THE BEAR IN THE UKRAINE

A pertinent question considering the world we’re living in

In boxing, the jab is often used as bait. You use your jab as a lure so that your opponent will make a move. It entices the other chap to take a step forward — usually with a jab of their own. But then they open themselves up to your more powerful right. Boom, a direct hit to the face. It’s a little dance called “provoke”. The same sort of thing applies in judo.

You can be sure that Vlad Putin, recently excommunicated judo black belt, is au fait with this old two-step. As I watch the desperately sad war unfold in Ukraine, and commiserate with poetic Ukrainian soldiers on the battle field quoting Persian love poems in Farsi while asking who’ll tell their beloved that they’re dead, all the while marvelling at Volodymyr Zelenskiy, their prolifically heroic leader in his combat fatigues, the telegenic comic who really stepped up when things got real, I wonder: who’s baiting who?

Was it Putin as he ranged his forces on three of Ukraine’s borders, or did Nato and the EU really poke the bear? Was the Ukrainian Nato bait a jab to Russia’s notional idea of its legitimate circle of influence, or is Putin just jabbing the West? Right now it looks more like a grisly cha cha — two steps forward, three steps back. The Ukrainians are getting it in the neck. But Putin and his cronies have suddenly lost access to their kleptocratic billions, while the Russian economy tanks.

There’s another move in boxing, called the feint. You pretend to be throwing a punch and watch how your opponent reacts so you can do it again for real this time. Perhaps the previous round of this bout in Crimea was the feint. The money spigot was turned off back then, too, and Putin ended up with a nice chunk of land next to sea.

I still don’t know who’s doing what in this round. All I know is that the next 11 rounds are going to be long, bloody and stressful. I wish I could ring the bell.