‘We are reaping the whirlwind’
SA scientists say their climate warnings have been ignored for years
● Extreme weather like the catastrophic floods that hit KwaZulu-Natal is becoming increasingly common in SA because of climate change, and the country’s ageing infrastructure can’t cope.
Experts say they have been sounding the alarm for years but authorities have been slow to respond. They warn that these changes will affect food security, which will lead to higher food prices and ultimately more social unrest.
Professor Mike Muller of the Wits School of Governance said water scientists and managers have long warned that climate change will bring more extreme rainstorms.
“Because of this growing risk, water managers highlighted the importance of proper design, construction, maintenance and management of stormwater infrastructure, without which extreme rain will cause the kind of damage that we are seeing in KwaZulu-Natal.
“This is often ignored by municipal leaders who often prioritise spending with immediate visible benefit rather than on infrastructure that may not even be needed during their term in office. But it is an essential part of disaster risk reduction, which is a municipal responsibility,” said Muller.
Drier, hotter droughts; more frequent and longer-lasting floods; rising sea levels; heatwaves and biting cold spells — such as Gauteng’s wet and gloomy December — are expected to increase. A report released last September by the University of the Witwatersrand’s Global Change Institute said the risk of severe storms, long-term droughts and heatwaves will increase with climate change in Southern Africa. As a result, loss of life, injury and damage to infrastructure will increase. It found there is a high likelihood that agricultural production in Southern Africa will decline and eventually collapse, while livestock production will become unviable.
University of KwaZulu-Natal (UKZN) town-planning expert professor Hope Magidimisha-Chipungu said scientists and researchers have warned that some coastal cities and nations will “literally disappear”, and the rest will need to adapt quickly.
Adriaan van der Walt, a University of the Free State senior lecturer, said SA’s infrastructure cannot handle extreme weather events. “Homes are more easily able to handle extreme heat, but very cold weather is a problem — particularly in informal settlements that cannot cope with freezing temperatures or flooding. And our energy sector is incapable of handling demand increases prompted by cold weather.
“What we are seeing in KwaZulu-Natal is horrifying, but already we are starting to see instances of the same happening in Gauteng, and even in Limpopo.”
Rising sea levels, Van der Walt said, are already being observed in places like Langebaan in the Western Cape where sandbags are being shored up against high tides in an effort to protect beachfront properties.
Climatologist Simon Gear said climate change is difficult to see from day to day “but locally we are seeing greater variability as our wet seasons get wetter, dry seasons get drier and average temperatures rise”.
“Globally it is manifesting in events such as freak warm temperatures in Antarctica and wildfires in Australia. In SA it’s more subtle, seen in changes such as the ratio of grass to trees in the Kruger National Park where they study that kind of stuff closely. The interior is getting wetter and warmer, the Western Cape is getting drier and warmer,” he said.
Wits University research associate in climate change risk management professor Jasper Knight said the devastating effects of the floods can be blamed on poor governance and infrastructure maintenance failures. He said SA’s built infrastructure is not fit for purpose as it was constructed “50 or so years ago for conditions at that time” and does not adequately address 21st-century needs.
“As cities grow we need to build for the future and design for climate change and lower carbon emissions. Low-density housing, food markets and food gardens, renewable energy and green spaces that act as lungs and stop overheating are the way to go,” Knight said.
Another key area is agriculture. Farming provinces like the Free State have to adapt to depleted groundwater and sudden flooding, he said.
Natasha Cronjé, of the University of the Free State’s department of consumer science, said climate change has a direct effect on food prices.
“The FAO [Food and Agriculture Organisation] estimates that for every 1°C increase in the global average temperature, global agriculture production decreases 10%. Food production needs to be increased by 70% by
2050 to produce enough food for everyone on Earth,” she said, adding that with temperatures rising at double the global average, SA is a climate change hotspot.
Professor Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi, a UKZN climate expert, said there is a “general lack of preparedness” for dealing with extreme weather.
“We do have the South African Weather Service to issue warnings but there is a gap at local level. Informal residents bear the brunt of extreme weather because they live close to rivers where they can get water and on steep slopes where there is no proper town planning.”
Alistair Clulow, of UKZN’s department of agricultural, earth & environmental sciences, agrees.
“We are going to have to build houses only in areas that are suitable for construction. At present we use any space that is available. Floodplains, dunes, steep slopes, near the sea, are all dangerous. We need to redesign our drains to accommodate more water, maintain them and keep them clear of rubbish. We also need to slow down the water in the catchments using vegetation such as grasslands, forest and wetlands,” he said.
eThekwini municipality and the KwaZulu-Natal department of co-operative governance & traditional affairs said they have disaster-management plans in place.
Municipality spokesperson Msawakhe Mayisela said the city’s human settlements unit tries to ensure people are moved to transit camps before moving to their new homes once construction is completed.
“It is an unfortunate reality that no matter how many houses are built or how many people are moved, informal settlements continue to mushroom across the city. Our land invasion unit has been working hard to ensure illegal structures are removed. Despite all the city’s efforts, people continue to build illegally in areas that are not meant for settling,” he said.
KwaZulu-Natal department of co-operative governance & traditional affairs spokesperson Senzelwe Mzila said the removal of families from low-lying areas requires negotiations and cannot be achieved rapidly without compromising people’s rights.
“The issue of informal settlements is complex, with varying challenges and multiple stakeholders. A large majority of settlements on river banks or within floodlines are informal settlements. These have been established primarily through informal processes and have not been enabled or approved by the municipalities.”