Business should get tougher on Cyril
There’s a belief permeating the business and professional sectors: Cyril Ramaphosa will be a more decisive president in his second term. He will have little to lose, so making decisions will be much easier. But this is a very simplistic view that ignores the reality that created our situation: a dithering president.
One of the reasons for the belief is that Ramaphosa won control of the ANC by a razor-thin margin five years ago. Therefore, a decisive margin next month (I think he will be reelected uncontested) will make him a strong man. I don’t believe this. Ramaphosa has been in public life for five decades and his leadership traits are well established. He believes in consensusbuilding. He is not a leader who will quickly propel the people.
The ANC is a complex, broken organisation with many moving parts. It is corrupt, its systems subverted. It is led by a generation whose time has long passed. In his second term, Ramaphosa will lead a “collective” that has seen better days. It is apparent that the people fighting for positions are those who have been doing so for the past two decades.
Business pins its hopes on him cracking the whip from day one of his second term. I don’t see that. Ramaphosa is not a details man. He spends his time at the highest of levels. In a different environment, that would not be a problem.
He would need to pair with a doer: someone to be his bad cop and drive the implementation programme. But where would the doer come from? None of the people touted as potential “top six” members has experience outside the factional merry-go-round. Ramaphosa will be stuck with the same calibre and political culture that led to mediocre results during his first term.
Also, the ANC will make it hard for him to do much since the party switches into succession mode the day after an elective conference, as people position themselves for the next elections. So, as he celebrates his second victory, the ANC will be looking at the 2024 elections, but with its internal wars in the background.
In this environment, the business sector would do well to look at structural issues and beyond the man it hoped would save South Africa.
Ramaphosa will need coalition partners to be able to rule the country after the 2024 elections. Effusive support for him from the business sector has yet to help South Africa move forward faster. If anything, it has protected the man and his underperforming ministers.
There is a lot business and the professional class can do to help Ramaphosa perform. One is conditional support when signing government bonds. Debt covenants should have firm conditions regarding the governance and the constitution of boards and executive teams.
An example was early in 2018 when lenders spoke tough, threatening to boycott government bonds if Eskom did not see leadership changes. Immediately, the likes of Matshela Koko were yanked out of Megawatt Park. That was the most decisive moment of the Ramaphosa leadership.
With the ANC discussing fixing Eskom and other state-owned enterprises, business and labour will have an elevated voice. Instead of dreaming about sending skills from the private sector — to be mauled eventually by rapacious politicised public servants — business may need to keep a healthy distance and use other tools. Otherwise, when all and sundry see Ramaphosa for who he truly is — a dithering man — business will have been complicit for having played along and entertained his limitless promises.