Dumping the ANC might be the easy part
Next year’s elections have been touted as a watershed for our country and its politics. At the heart of the excitement is the presumption that the poll will oust the ANC after 30 years in office, presumably taking us to a new beginning of progress, an end to corruption and much better governance generally.
The sentiment may reflect the personal wishes of those who can’t wait to see the back of the ANC rather than an evidence-based certainty. Hope for the ANC’s demise has been spurred by pollsters who have predicted the party’s support will drop below the crucial 50% plus one. Others who see the ANC’s loss of power at national and provincial levels as a foregone conclusion draw comfort from the 2021 local elections, in which the ANC’s overall share fell below 50% by a significant margin.
But polls are essentially an indicator of electoral outcomes, they do not provide cast-iron confirmation of how voters will behave on the day or how many of them will bother to go to the polling stations.
Still, the possibility of the ANC suffering substantial losses next year cannot be discounted entirely. The party’s selfinflicted wounds, including mismanagement that has given us load-shedding and problems with access to clean water for many who are traditionally its support base, as well as a decline in services on which most citizens depend, cannot but harm its prospects.
If party leaders are not deeply concerned about next year ’ s elections they are suffering a serious bout of denialism and are woefully out of touch with the lived experience of those they are supposed to govern.
Irrespective of which opinion polls one chooses to believe, and the percentage variance in results, the trend they paint is unmistakable — that the ANC’s loss of its absolute majority is now a probability. Also obvious is that neither of the other biggish parties — the DA (or its MultiParty Charter) and the EFF — would be able to form a government on their own. They are predicted to fall some way below the ANC.
With access to power at a national level beckoning, the EFF might find an explanation for why working with the ANC would be a quintessentially
‘ revolutionary ’ thing to do
As is now commonly accepted, two or more of these parties will have to go into a coalition to reach the 50% plus one threshold to form a government.
On paper, it would be easier for the ANC, with an expected simple majority, to form a government with either of the two leading also-rans, likely to be the DA (or the
MPC) and the EFF.
Again on paper, there might seem to be greater political affinity between the ANC and the EFF, given the overlap of interests between the parties’ core constituencies. But as their failed collaboration to pass land expropriation legislation showed, a marriage of the two would be a rocky one.
Besides, there is discomfort in the ANC with going into an alliance with the EFF, seen by some in the party as a direct electoral competitor “fishing in the same pond”, in the words of some leaders. And though there’s a school of thought that favours tactical co-operation with the EFF, Julius Malema has not hidden his animosity towards President Cyril Ramaphosa, which might complicate matters as long as Ramaphosa is at the helm.
However, in politics, as elsewhere in life, the saying
“never say never” holds true. With access to power at a national level beckoning, the EFF might find an explanation for why working with the ANC would be a quintessentially
“revolutionary ” thing to do.
In any case, it is moot whether Ramaphosa will have the appetite to stay on for much longer beyond the elections, even if a weakened ANC is able to form a new government.
On the other hand, if it sees power and its benefits slipping from its grasp, would the ANC not eat humble pie and jump into bed with the EFF?
For its part, the DA’s declaration that the MPC’s raison d’être is to remove the ANC from power would seem to rule out the possibility of the two going into an alliance. For historical and ideological reasons a rapprochement between the ANC and the DA would likely be a bridge too far.
If the pollsters are to be believed, next year’s elections are likely to result in a weaker centre in national politics, with none of the contending parties enjoying outright control of the government. A situation akin to what has happened in many municipalities, including Johannesburg and Ekurhuleni in Gauteng.
In that eventuality, contrary to the popular view that the removal of the ANC would usher in nirvana, we may end up in unstable chaos. Navigating that would require leaders with wisdom and political maturity. Leaders who are capable of putting the country and its people first, rather than pursuing narrow, short-term, personal agendas.
Breaking the ANC’s long-standing stranglehold on power might, in retrospect, prove to have been the easier task.