Scorching temperatures and violent storms on the cards
El Niño and global warming will put animals and ecosystems under pressure in the coming year, writes
Recent heatwaves in Gauteng, water shortages and storms causing localised flooding are harbingers of what South Africa can expect next year as temperatures rise — worsened by El Niño and global warming.
Climatology professor Francois Engelbrecht, head of the Global Change Institute at Wits University, says El Niño is an ocean and atmospheric cycle that causes lower rainfall and can last for years. “This El Niño is likely to be more intense and last longer [than previous ones] because of global warming,” he says.
The phenomenon is expected to trigger scorching temperatures in 2024 and beyond, putting vulnerable people, pets, livestock, wildlife and birds under stress.
“Even penguins may suffer from heat stress and take strain,” says Stellenbosch University professor Guy Midgley, head of the School for Climate Studies, noting that the depletion of their prey by fishing means they must swim further to find food.
He says: “Each El Niño is a bit different, but in general heat stress is higher, the summer rainfall in South Africa is less, conditions are much drier, and wildfires increase.”
In the northern hemisphere summer this year, wildfires raged across North America and temperatures in Europe soared after El Niño kicked in, making July the hottest month yet recorded by Nasa.
Physical geographer Dr Adriaan van der Walt, of the University of the Free State, says informal settlements could turn into “urban heat islands”. “A large chunk of the South African population does not have the infrastructure or the capacity to prepare for [climate hazards],” he warns.
University of Cape Town professor Gina Ziervogel, director of the African Climate and Development Initiative, says cities and public housing projects should consider heat stress in their planning.
EXTREME WEATHER AND DISEASE RISK
But heat and probable drought are not the whole picture. The northeastern parts of the country could be hit by torrential rains, storms and flooding. Flooding, driven by El Niño, devastated Tanzania and Kenya in November.
WWF South Africa environmental scientist Nokwethaba Makhanya says: “While average rainfall is decreasing, high rainfall events are increasing, particularly along the east coast of KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape.”
Changes in humidity, rising temperatures and increasing water pollution from floods could allow vector-borne diseases to spread, says Ezemvelo KZN Wildlife conservation scientist Dr Sebataolo Rahlao. “We could see malaria prevalence spread further down into northern KwaZulu-Natal, with an increase in [mosquito] habitats.”
The impact of the climate crisis on health systems will “go up and up”, says Dr Gloria Maimela, director of climate and health at the Wits Reproductive Health and HIV Institute.
Wits researchers found, for instance, that pregnant women exposed to very hot weather have a high risk of preterm birth, low birth weight, stillbirth and lifethreatening pre-eclampsia, she says.
Monitoring vulnerable groups — like pregnant women, the elderly, the young and the immunocompromised — is necessary to protect them.
WILDLIFE AND LIVELIHOODS AT RISK
“Climate change is compromising the ability of nature to support livelihoods in KwaZulu-Natal, where many communities depend on eco-tourism and ecosystem services,” says Rahlao.
For example, the leatherback turtle, whose sex is determined by beach sand temperatures, is affected by increasing sea levels, while storms are destroying the turtles’ nesting habitats, reducing eco-tourism potential.
“Heat is shifting the behaviour of other threatened and charismatic species that are key for eco-tourism,” he says. For example, African wild dogs have lower pup survival when pup-rearing coincides with periods of high ambient temperature.
In other parts of KwaZulu-Natal, communities harvest the wetland reed incema to weave baskets and mats. Over the years, the reed has declined, even in protected areas. In some years, this annual traditional harvesting has been cancelled owing to drought, and climate change is likely to worsen the situation in future, says Rahlao.
In the Kruger National Park, rising temperatures are putting animals and ecosystems under pressure. Dr Ian Little, head of conservation at the Endangered Wildlife Trust, says wildlife would simply move away from unbearable temperatures in the past. But with fenced reserves they are now in serious trouble, he says.
Localised and niche species, like Cape stag (colophon) beetles, will also have “nowhere to go” in hot El Niño years. Almost all of these beetles are threatened, he says.
“They live on the tops of peaks in the Western Cape mountains, and each peak has its own species. Most species could move to higher altitudes [to escape the heat], but these beetles are already at the tops of peaks.”
Events in South Africa show that changes in weather associated with global warming are already here. Little says unseasonably cold conditions in October for migrating birds led to European beeeaters and swallows dying in Gauteng, the North West, Mpumalanga, Limpopo and Eswatini.
WE CAN SLOW DOWN GLOBAL WARMING
“The increase in temperature is not something in the future. We are already experiencing increases in temperature of more than 1.5°C in several areas in South Africa,” says Caroline Gelderblom, manager of water source partnerships at WWF South Africa.
Increases in temperatures in Africa over the next 20 years could be twice the global warming forecast of 1.5°C for the planet. But even 2°C could be a catastrophic tipping point for South Africa and the continent.
“When is this threshold likely to be reached? This depends on what we do,” says Engelbrecht.