The political curse of the commander-in-chief
The EFF and other opposition parties that are dominated by one long-ensconced leader are prone to splintering or collapse when that leader leaves, because party policy is usually their personal choice.
Such parties can endure in the long term only by managing a successful leadership succession; it is no surprise that in South Africa, no party dominated by a single personality has survived for long. All have either collapsed after the initial hype and excitement around their launch or disintegrated due to internal leadership wrangles.
Support for such parties often quickly hits a ceiling as lower-ranking leaders clash with the top leader then quit the party, taking their support base with them. The support vacuum is seldom replenished with a substantial number of new voters because of the way the main leader dominates the party and marginalises anyone who opposes them.
The almost inevitable demise of any party dominated by a single leader who sees it as their personal possession is one of the reasons people lose interest in voting.
Without leadership changes at the top, political parties cannot mature into institutions separate from the personal image of the founder, so they are unlikely to grow support above a certain level.
Many parties in postcolonial Africa are of this type; a single leader essentially owns the party and its policies and vets all the key appointments.
A party becomes a political institution when it attracts members and voters on the basis of its policies and ideology rather than the personality or charisma of its leader. Such a party can outlive its leaders, particularly its founding leader.
Parties that fail to achieve this usually wither once the chief leader is no more.
This is the problem for the EFF. A genuine leadership challenge to Julius Malema could break the party. Without the prospect of a leadership transition, talented leaders below him might leave, either quietly or loudly, taking their backers with them. This will deter potential new supporters, and the EFF could struggle to grow beyond its existing base, or even retain it.
The longevity of the ANC is partly due to its regular leadership changes. The ANC is fully institutionalised. With every leadership change, members and supporters who were disillusioned with the old leadership feel renewed hope that the new leadership will hear them, that new policies will be adopted and that corruption will be dealt with.
The DA is also fully institutionalised. New leaders are regularly elected, and throughout the hierarchy members work for the party because they back its policies and what it represents, regardless of whether they approve of the chief leader.
COPE collapsed because the party could not become institutionalised and transition from one leader to another. When Mosiuoa Lekota was challenged by Mbhazima Shilowa for control, the party fell apart.
In mature democracies, in Western Europe or North America or Japan, political parties are institutionalised to such an extent that they can endure for centuries. Leaders who fail to deliver on their mandates get voted out of office.
In many cases in Africa, opposition parties are as poorly institutionalised as ruling parties, set up mostly as business vehicles or personal/family enterprises.
In South Africa, it is crucial not only for the parties themselves but for the quality of democracy and for the continued participation of voters that they nurture a cadre of leaders who will take over the reins one day. Organising themselves around one supreme leader imposes a limited lifespan.
This is the problem for the EFF. A genuine leadership challenge to Julius Malema could break the party