Ominous risk looms in the new year — but so does opportunity

After the British triumph over Nazi forces at El Alamein in 1942, Winston Churchill remarked: “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” This historic acknowledgment that life is a marathon, not a sprint, and that the spirit of righteous endurance will overcome, captures the sense of expectation seizing South Africa as we approach the 2024 elections.

The past 30 years have seen ups and downs — from the halcyon Nelson Mandela days of the “rainbow nation” and the period of purposeful growth under Thabo Mbeki to the calamitous decline under Jacob Zuma — but the ANC’s grip on power has remained a constant. The ANC had become the devil we know.

With the exception of Cape Town and the Western Cape, ANC rule has until recently been a given in South Africa’s democracy. But now coalition politics is disrupting the status quo, assisted by new rules that allow independents to stand for election to parliament for the first time.

The coming election represents the first real opportunity since 1994 for a realignment in our politics. It is a chance to reprioritise resources and energies, and an opportunity to reinstill the values of public spiritedness that should be at the heart of any prosperous society. For too long the ANC has been the loudest, and sometimes the only, voice in the room; this has encouraged a denial of hard realities and has diluted the contribution politics should be making to nation-building.

To its credit, the ANC has remained largely true to the ideals of the struggle for liberation. These include tolerance and acceptance of diversity, freedom of expression and association and adherence to the rule of law, even when court judgments have not gone in its favour.

These are all positives, to be built on and embellished by acceptance that electoral defeat in a democracy is an opportunity to regroup for a later victory.

Yet much of the co-operative ethos of our constitution has been smothered by our polarising political discourse. Too often the quest for common ground in policies and attitudes that attempt to embrace the full diversity of the population has been overlooked in favour of narrow partisanship.

The elections are an opportunity to restate what should be manifest — that the government serves at the will of the people, for the people. Politicians should not, as now seems to be the case, pursue power for the opportunity to enrich themselves and their friends and families.

Coalition governments will require a level of negotiation and compromise that is not readily apparent in our politics now. It is obvious to all that accountability to voters is virtually nonexistent at every level, and the fragility of a coalition government could make it more sensitive to swings in the public mood.

Agility and bargaining skills will be essential. Ideally, opposition parties will feel the need to play a constructive role, knowing full well that the programmes they sabotage today might be theirs to administer in the near future.

For those who have made a political career out of highlighting the ANC’s many deficiencies, 2024 could be the year they are forced to step up to the plate and offer their contributions. The past three decades have shown that the challenge in South Africa is to take the collective goodwill, energy and expertise of our people and instil them in a government that plays an appropriate role in public and business affairs. A government that eschews meddling and creating obstacles but nurtures creativity and offers opportunities to those prepared to make the best of them.

The coalitions we have seen in South Africa’s metros have not been encouraging from the point of view of stability, and in 2024 the old certainties will count for little. Our democracy has fared reasonably well in familiar and clement waters until now. How we handle the high seas and howling gales of 2024 will be the real test, and potentially the big opportunity.

Politicians should not pursue power for a chance to enrich themselves