Zuma and MK party could be kingmakers in KZN
TIt is likely that Zuma would demand a presidential pardon in return for a coalition agreement with the ANC
he new Umkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party endorsed by former president Jacob Zuma is causing panic in the ruling party and giving rise to wild assertions from his supporters that it will unseat the ANC nationally and sweep him back to power. It is unlikely to do either.
MK’s real danger to the ANC is that it may help bring down the party’s support in KwaZulu-Natal to close to 40%, and to below 50% nationally.
It is also likely to take votes from the EFF. Both parties — along with Ace Magashule’s African Congress for Transformation (ACT) — are fishing in the same ANC voter pond.
The 2024 provincial and national elections are likely to produce coalition governments.
Zuma and the MK party may become kingmakers in KwaZulu-Natal if the ANC falls close to 40% and needs several smaller parties to form a governing provincial coalition.
In such a scenario, the ANC may be forced to negotiate with MK and the EFF, who will demand tough concessions.
This means that a future national or KwaZuluNatal provincial coalition government may consist of the ANC, EFF, MK and smaller opposition parties such as the Patriotic Alliance (PA) and Al Jama-ah.
MK, depending on its electoral performance, will give Zuma a strong hand to bargain for generous concessions in return for a coalition with what he calls “Ramaphosa’s ANC”.
It is likely that Zuma would demand a presidential pardon in return for a coalition agreement with the ANC, whether at provincial or national level. He still faces formidable corruption charges and has — so far unsuccessfully — lobbied President Cyril Ramaphosa for a pardon.
Magashule’s ACT has its base in the Free State. He is unlikely to win the province, but could help drag the ANC vote to below 50% there, becoming potentially a key provincial coalition partner.
There is clearly a dramatic realignment of politics in the form of key coalitions. After this year’s elections the ANC may be in coalitions with Julius Malema’s EFF, Zuma’s MK, Magashule’s ACT and smaller parties such as the PA, GOOD and Al Jama-ah.
Magashule is also trying to build a coalition of left populist parties in opposition to the ANC with the EFF, PAC and many of the black consciousness (BC)-rooted parties.
No doubt Magashule would want to persuade MK to join such an alliance. If he was successful it would mean an EFF, MK, ACT, PAC and BC parties alliance.
The eight-member multiparty charter (MPC) is South Africa’s first pre-election coalition in modern history. It includes the DA — the main opposition party — the IFP, ActionSA, FF+ and the Independent South African National Civic Organisation (Isanco).
New political parties such as Rise Mzansi and Build One South Africa (Bosa), established outside the ANC family and factions, are in danger of being publicly overshadowed by all these potential political coalition formations and alignments.
Given the fact that no single individual or new party will unseat the ANC, stand-alone parties are likely to struggle to make inroads at the ballot box.