Nation’s fate could be decided in KZN
If the ANC falls below 50% in the province, it will be easy for the IFP or the DA to form a coalition and keep the ANC out of power
The significance of KwaZuluNatal in South Africa’s politics is starkly illustrated by the amount of time and effort parties are devoting to campaigning there. It is a province that epitomises South Africa’s economic challenges more so than others, with various factors, from infrastructure decay to climate change, highly visible.
The EFF will launch its manifesto in Durban on February 10, followed by the ANC on February 28. The IFP will launch its manifesto in the city on March 10.
KwaZulu-Natal, along with Gauteng, will be central in the battle for control for South Africa. In the 2019 national election, it contributed about
20% of the ANC’s national vote count.
If the ANC drops below 50% in the election this year, it will be because its support in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng has plunged. In a way, the question of who will run the national government could be decided in KwaZulu-Natal.
Five years ago, the ANC won 55.47% of the vote in KwaZulu-Natal, not a comfortable position by any stretch of the imagination. Significant developments since 2019 include the dramas involving the Prince of Nkandla — such as briefly going to prison — and the ANC’s selection in 2022 of a top seven with zero KwaZulu-Natal representation.
The team that leads the ANC in the province is one of confused mediocrity. It has yet to redefine itself since powerful figures such as Senzo Mchunu and Zweli Mkhize left their posts in KwaZulu-Natal. The province is now run by various centres of power, with no clear distinction between the party and the state.
For example, the premier, Nomsa Dube, is routinely overshadowed by party chair Siboniso Duma.
The IFP is experiencing a resurgence in support, often winning more votes than the ANC in byelections.
If the ANC falls below 50% in the province, it will be easy for the IFP or the DA to form a coalition and keep the ANC out of power.
The ANC may need a strategic partnership with the IFP should it fall below 50% in the national poll. In that scenario, the IFP would run KwaZulu-Natal with the ANC and, in return, give its support to President Cyril Ramaphosa in the national picture. An ANC-IFP coalition could offer the only stable option among the election permutations, coming the closest to a “business as usual” government.
All other possibilities would place South Africa on a perilous knife-edge.
If their combined support falls short of 50%, the FF+ would be a rational, if counterintuitive, candidate for stability.
There is little in the policies of the FF+ that is irreconcilable with those of the ANC, though their rhetoric might clash on such topics as land and the protection of minority rights.
From a public relations perspective, cooperation between the FF+ and the ANC would be a nightmare to achieve. But in reality, the ANC poses no genuine risk to the Afrikaner constituency of the FF+.
In KwaZulu-Natal, nothing distinguishes the ANC from the IFP anyway.
The IFP is less likely to rock the boat in the national government than any of the other political parties.
The man from Nkandla will also be a factor, albeit mathematically marginal.
He and his lieutenants are attractive to the EFF, which is investing significantly in the KwaZuluNatal leg of its campaign. Zuma will simply muddy the waters, prompting many in the ANC’s traditional base to stay away or vote for someone else.
In a close-run election, turnout matters quite a bit. In an election where the ANC top brass is “visitors from Gauteng”, Zuma will “outZulu” everyone.
I won’t hold my breath about what each party can conjure up as a credible manifesto.
Manifestos are essential tools in the campaign period but hardly move people on the ground. They are like bones for the intellectual class to chew while parties and voters interact at the most basic level of identity politics.