Let’s hope Israel heeds ICJ warning and the Gaza carnage ends

The International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruling on South Africa’s case against Israel has divided world opinion along expected lines. The Western powers gave the judgment a grudging nod, while much of the rest of the world hailed it as a victory for common decency and justice in a war that has filled our newspaper pages and television screens with images of unspeakable horror and the deaths of more than 25,000 Palestinians in Gaza.

The main takeaway from the judgment is that Israel has been put on watch, its attention drawn to possible violations of the 1948 Genocide Convention in its prosecution of its war against Hamas. The court found that South Africa did have a plausible case against Israel. Over the next few years, presumably, the justices of the court will seek to establish whether the crime of genocide has indeed been committed.

According to those on the side of South Africa, the ruling has also put Western powers on notice in respect of their support for Israel’s war. Already, US President Joe Biden’s enthusiastic support for what he sees as Israel’s right to defend itself has damaged his reelection campaign. Other Western governments facing large-scale opposition to their pro-Israeli stance, such as the UK, could also be shown the door before the year is out.

International relations & co-operation minister Naledi Pandor’s assertion that the ruling means Israel will have to halt its military campaign is unlikely to materialise. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already dismissed the ICJ’s orders, suggesting Israel will stay true to its history of flouting UN resolutions and those of other world bodies.

Over the next month, the Israeli government will have to compile a detailed report about what it is doing to implement the court’s orders — including to ensure its military operations are within the bounds of the Genocide Convention, and that it has taken immediate and effective measures to ensure basic services and humanitarian relief for those in Gaza. Whether it will do so remains to be seen. For the Israelis, and the hawkish Netanyahu in particular, the ruling is a reaffirmation of the acceptance of the Jewish state’s right to defend itself.

Some have welcomed the ICJ’s provisional measures as a step towards demonstrating the need for multilateral institutions such as the UN to flex their muscles on the world stage. Many in Gaza, while welcoming South Africa’s bold steps in bringing their cause to the world’s attention, see the ruling as yet another UN fudge that means little in practical terms. Successive UN General Assembly resolutions on the Israel-Hamas conflict have been vetoed in the Security Council, demonstrating that the gridlock in council votes will remain as constricting as ever. For President Cyril Ramaphosa, who heads a government at risk of being voted out by its own citizens when elections are held later this year, the ruling is a feather in his cap. His government’s stance on the war has elevated his profile, which the ANC will be able to boast of in its election campaign.

There will be critics who argue that the South African experience of a negotiated settlement to end white minority rule has been disregarded in the government’s seemingly one-sided approach to the conflict. That said, many will feel a sense of pride in a government that has taken up the reins of global south activism, recapturing the spirit of the era of Nelson Mandela in the pursuit of a principled foreign policy that mirrors South Africa’s own liberation struggle. Others may see in the approach to the ICJ signs of a government that is trying to offset its failings by parading its revolutionary credentials.

Whatever the case, the net result is that the culture of impunity that has been a big part of Israel’s approach to the Palestinians has been questioned, including by judges from countries like the US that support Israel. Let’s hope the Israelis in their future conduct in the war will be mindful of the court’s warnings, knowing the eyes of the world are on them now. And if Hamas also accedes to the court’s call for the hostages to be freed, the way could be cleared for the lasting settlement the region so desperately needs.

Many will feel a sense of pride in a government that has taken up the reins of global south activism