Africa should beware Donald Trump’s terrifying second coming
● The second coming of former US president Donald Trump is looming large on the horizon. He seems to have an unassailable lead in the race for nomination as the Republican candidate for the presidential election in November.
He resoundingly won the first two Republican primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire and polls show that he will emerge the winner in the next major primary in South Carolina on February 24. It is highly likely that Nikki Haley, the only remaining contender, will throw in the towel should Trump win that primary, thus paving the way for his nomination.
Trump also seems to be edging President Joe Biden in the polls. Biden is almost guaranteed to be the Democratic nominee for the November election, with 71% leaning towards his candidacy. Trump leads Biden by slender margins in the majority of national polls. His return to the White House looks a very real possibility.
Trump’s first presidency, anchored on the “America First” slogan, threatened to undo the liberal global order and take the world back to the dark ages of chauvinist nationalism and populism that precipitated the two most devastating wars in history in 1914 and 1939.
Not even the US’s closest allies could have anticipated what a rollercoaster his presidency would be. Many countries in the world are bracing themselves for Trump’s second reign at the White House. But what would his presidency mean for Africa?
One of Trump’s defining attributes is unpredictability. As a result, there is no telling what is in store for Africa if his second bid for the presidency is successful. However, his ideological positioning is clear in his America First mantra, which worked like a charm in mobilising the support base that propelled him to the White House in 2016.
In short, America First means disengaging or withdrawing from any trade arrangement or multilateral agreement that, in his understanding, prejudices US interests; slapping entire populations with travel bans because of their religion in the name of antiterrorism; and building a high wall at the southern border to stop illegal immigration and maintain America’s cultural purity. Trump’s world is devoid of the concept of global public goods. It is a world in which national interests reign supreme.
It is a terrifying world. In his mind, the multilateral agreements and global institutions seeking to address a wide range of global challenges — from climate change to immigration, inefficient trade
practices and poverty — are nothing but intricate conspiracies meant to destroy his beloved America.
His withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the UN Human Rights Council and the Iran nuclear deal showed that he was ready to create a world after his own imagination. Threats to defund the UN, railings against Nato, the World Health Organisation (WHO) and the World Trade Organisation — plus the temerity to describe African countries as “shitholes ”— gave the world a glimpse of the kind of leader Trump is. Africa has the short end of the stick in the current global order. It would be in a much worse position if Trump were to get his way unbridled.
That the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) and the President’s Emergency Plan for Aids Relief — the two biggest US-Africa initiatives — still operated during his administration is thanks to the checks and balances of the US political system. Would these programmes survive his second presidency?
The Prosper Africa initiative championed by his administration, which sought to improve trade and commercial ties between the US and Africa, was framed in terms of countering China’s influence on the continent.
This left the impression that Trump, who never personally talked about the initiative, saw Africa simply as a pawn in the game of great power competition.
The most worrying part is less that Trump doesn’t seem to have changed his thinking — judging by his campaign rhetoric — than that he may have learnt how to circumvent the obstacles thrown in his way as president. He would do this by using his support base to whip Republican legislators into line to support his agenda. He has also promised to reinstitute the so-called Schedule F executive order, which strips thousands of civil service employees of their employment protection and enables the president to easily fire them. With such authority at his disposal, Trump would be able to dismiss the bureaucrats he perceives as an obstacle to his agenda.
A Trump with no restraints would be bad news for Africa and the world. His climate denialism would serve to accelerate global climate change and its devastating effects (flooding, heatwaves and droughts), against which Africa is the least prepared to defend itself.
His doctrine of protectionism, especially against China, will slow global growth and disrupt supply chains, leaving Africa’s economy in tatters. It is uncertain whether a Trump administration would renew Agoa when it expires in 2025. Agoa grants businesses from selected African countries free access to the US market. In 2022, African countries exported merchandise worth more than $10bn (about R186bn) under the scheme. Its discontinuation would see many businesses go under and more people fall into poverty.
Trump would also not hesitate to obliterate multilateral organisations such as the UN and the WHO that continue to play a critical role in fighting poverty in many African countries. Africa and other developing regions have used multilateral platforms to articulate their interests and mobilise support for their causes. Robbing them of such important platforms would rob them of a voice in global governance.
African leaders should be preparing to limit or mitigate the damage a second Trump administration may cause to the continent’s development prospects and its position in the world.
In his mind, the multilateral agreements and global institutions seeking to address a wide range of global challenges are nothing but intricate conspiracies meant to destroy his beloved America