Oscar predictions: the moment of truth has nearly arrived
Precedent and the stats point to few surprises in this year’s Oscar race, with Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer leading the odds to take home many of the statues. Whether the members of the Academy will make the British director’s epic about the building of the atomic bomb a sweeping winner in all 13 of the categories nominated, however, remains uncertain.
With hours to go before the world’s biggest stars arrive on the red carpet, Tymon Smith makes his final predictions for who will win, who might pull off surprise wins and who, in a perfect world, should claim Oscar victory.
BEST PICTURE
Nominees:
American Fiction; Anatomy of a Fall; Barbie; The Holdovers; Killers of the Flower Moon; Maestro; Oppenheimer; Past Lives; Poor Things; and The Zone of Interest.
Who will win:
Oppenheimer. After wins at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice and BAFTA awards, it seems inevitable that the Academy will ensure that master of the thinking person’s blockbuster, Christopher Nolan, earns a first Best Picture win for an epic, intelligent drama. Its message about the dangers of technology-worship has struck a globally resonant chord.
Who could win:
Barbie. Director Greta Gerwig’s failure to be included in the Best Director nominations, in spite of the fact she became the first woman to direct a film that broke the billion-dollar box-office mark, has been seen as a glaring injustice; one that Oscar voters might still make up for by raining on Oppenheimer’s parade.
Who should win: The Zone of Interest. British director Jonathan Glazer’s German language period drama about the family of the commander of Auschwitz, rewrites the book on the Holocaust drama and makes discomforting use of the tricks of cinema in devastatingly effective ways.
BEST DIRECTOR
Nominees:
Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer; Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon; Justine Trier — Anatomy of a Fall; Jonathan Glazer — The Zone of Interest; and Yorgos Lanthimos — Poor Things.
Who will win:
Nolan. It’s almost certain that the master of using big-screen spectacle to engaging and intelligent, thematic effect, will have his talents acknowledged by the Academy.
Who could win:
Lanthimos. The surrealist mischief maker took advantage of the world of Alasdair Gray’s cult novel, letting his dark imagination run wild, offering the year’s most visually impressive, absurdist satisfaction.
Who should win:
Glazer. He’s a considered filmmaker, and his smart choices and innovative shifting of the ideas around how to portray the Holocaust on film should serve as evidence that in cinema, as sometimes still in life, slow and steady should win the race.
BEST ACTRESS
Nominees:
Emma Stone – Poor Things; Lily Gladstone — Killers of the Flower Moon; Sandra Hüller — Anatomy of a Fall; Carey Mulligan —
Maestro; and Annette Bening — Nyad.
Who will win:
Gladstone. In her first leading role in a major film — moving from the world of independent cinema to the mainstream — the actress of Native American origin shines as the quiet, devastating centre of Martin Scorsese’s epic tale of ruthless, racist, rapacious capitalist murder in 1920s Osage county.
Who could win:
Stone. Her complicated, demanding and committed turn as heroine Bella Baxter pushed her to new heights, providing a compelling centre to the weirdness of Lanthimos’ dark, feminist, gothic fairytale. It may earn her a second Best Actress win, after her 2017 victory for La La Land.
Who should win: Gladstone.
BEST ACTOR
Nominees:
Bradley Cooper — Maestro; Colman
Domingo — Rustin; Paul Giamatti — The Holdovers; Cillian Murphy — Oppenheimer; and Jeffrey Wright — American Fiction.
Who will win:
Murphy. In recent years, thanks to the success of his role on Peaky Blinders, the Irish actor has been stepping into the mainstream. With his first lead performance in a major bigbudget feature, Murphy has impressed critics and audiences; and his wins at the Baftas, Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild Awards have placed him in pole position for Oscar glory.
Who could win:
Giamatti. Reteaming with Sideways director Alexander Payne for the bittersweet Christmas tale of a beleaguered teacher at a New England prep-school, the veteran workhorse actor offers one of his most moving and drily funny performances.
Who should win:
Wright. Cord Jefferson’s directorial debut is one of the smartest, slyly funny and sharpest movie satires of the absurdities of racial prejudice in America. Its success is mainly due to the excellent work of Wright, a veteran whose dedication to his craft, while wellknown to audiences, critics and filmmakers, hasn’t been recognised by the Academy — yet.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees:
Emily Blunt — Oppenheimer; Danielle Brooks — The Color Purple; America Ferrera — Barbie; Jodie Foster — Nyad; and Da’Vine Joy Randolph — The Holdovers.
Who will win:
Randolph. Well regarded for her work on the American stage, Randolph’s performance as the grieving school cook coming to terms with the death of her son in Vietnam, has been this year’s awards season’s inspirational feel-good story. A fairytale Oscar-winning ending is deserved.
Who could win:
Foster. She began her career in her teens and has earned five Oscar nominations and two wins in her tenure. At the age of 61, Foster shows no signs of slowing down and demonstrates with her solid performance in the true-story sports drama Nyad that she shouldn’t be discounted.
Who should win: Randolph.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees:
Sterling K Brown — American Fiction; Robert De Niro — Killers of the Flower Moon; Robert Downey Jr — Oppenheimer; Ryan Gosling — Barbie; and Mark Ruffalo — Poor Things.
Who will win:
Downey Jr. He never seemed destined for the kind of success his obvious early talent promised until he managed to kick the drugs and booze, donned the Iron Man suit and became a highly paid and bankable star. Downey Jr seems to have come full circle, capped by an overdue Oscar win.
Who could win:
Gosling. Nobody had more self-deprecating, enjoyably silly fun on screen this year than Gosling, whose embrace of just being Ken made him an even bigger and beloved star. Who should win: Downey Jr.