Danger lurks for parties in ANC coalition

The DA or the IFP could be wounded if they go into an alliance with the ANC after the elections to prevent a “doomsday” coalition between the ANC and the EFF, no matter how good the intentions.

Partnering with the ANC in government could unleash divisions in either party and see them bleeding support. It would mean they would be sullied by ANC government failures, incompetence, and corruption. In a coalition, the ANC would likely blame its partners for anything that goes wrong.

The real danger is that partnering with the ANC would cause the decline of the DA or the IFP as political parties, just as the New National Party was decimated, and eventually dissolved, after its coalition with the ANC government.

Most parties that have partnered with the ANC in government since 1994 have either disappeared, lost their identity or lost their votes to the ANC in subsequent elections. The IFP’s coalition with the ANC between 1994 and 2004 saw the party gradually lose support to the ANC and eventually lose power in KwaZulu-Natal in 2004. Many IFP supporters, over time, could not see the difference between the IFP and ANC, and moved to the ANC.

The New National Party (NNP), the successor to the apartheid-era’s ruling National Party (NP), was destroyed by its 2001 coalition with the ANC and was almost eliminated from parliament in the 2004 election when its supporters left for other parties, including the DA. The party’s vote dropped from the NP’s 20.4% in 1994, to 6.87% in 1999, to 1.65% in 2004.

The Azanian People’s Organisation (Azapo) was part of the ANC government between 1999 and 2014 and failed to win a seat in the 2014 elections when its supporters either joined the ANC or left for other parties.

Patricia de Lille’s GOOD party, in coalition with the ANC in national government, is likely to lose support as many of the party’s supporters are unsatisfied with the government’s inept performance and associate GOOD with the government’s failures. GOOD is now in real danger, just like Azapo, of not winning a national seat in this year’s election.

In Zimbabwe, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) in 2009 went into alliance with Robert Mugabe’s Zanu-PF, with the MDC’s Morgan Tsvangirai becoming the prime minister and Mugabe remaining president. The coalition stabilised Zimbabwe, but it caused divisions in the MDC — with many supporters and voters disagreeing with the MDC becoming associated with Zanu-PF’s corruption, incompetence and violence. The coalition with Zanu-PF started the decline of the MDC and gave Zanu-PF a new lease on life. A DA or IFP partnership with the ANC would prolong the ANC’s life in government. The ANC is coming to the end of its governing life cycle. It will only be able to renew or introspect when it is in opposition, not when it is in government. A national coalition between the ANC and EFF would likely spark divisions in both parties, and could be the death knell for the EFF.

If the ANC drops below 50% in the May 29 elections it is likely that many of the provinces will be run by multiparty charter (MPC) coalitions. This will allow the MPC partners to build new provincial centres of excellence: improving public services, cutting corruption and incompetence, tackling poverty and bringing the rule of law, safety and a new commonsense rationality and decency to politics.