Now for the leadership race that isn’t
People are jockeying for position before Mangaung in December but subtly, writes Marianne Merten
SLATES, the ANC leadership candidate lists, continue to make the rounds in the face of condemnation by senior leaders and officials as factions in the ruling party seek to position themselves ahead of the December elective conference in Mangaung.
The permutations of lists floating around provinces – and regions in the provinces – seem endless. Some give weight to the ANC Youth League’s call for leadership change at Mangaung, to replace President Jacob Zuma with his deputy Kgalema Motlanthe as president, and secretary-general Gwede Mantashe with Sports Minister Fikile Mbalula.
Others are decidedly proZuma, linking him with those long considered to be close to him, like Police Minister Nathi Mthethwa and Public Enterprises Minister Malusi Gigaba.
Arts and Culture Minister Paul Mashatile, a former youth activist, pops up on several lists, as do ANC disciplinary appeals committee boss and businessman Cyril Ramaphosa, National Planning Minister Trevor Manuel and even Higher Education Minister and SACP boss Blade Nzimande.
The latest slate, reportedly under the banner “Anything But Zuma” – perhaps more an indication of desperation in some factions than a focus on quality – features Human Settlements Minister Tokyo Sexwale as president, not treasurer-general as he’s been touted to become on earlier slates. Featured with Sexwale are Mantashe, deputy secretary-general Thandi Modise, Mbalula and Kwazulu-natal education MEC Senzo Mchunu.
“People who get involved in punting this stuff are behaving like it is an American primary,” says Steven Friedman, director of the Centre for the Study of Democracy.
“Because we have this absurd rule that nobody can talk about things, people are trying it on, are flying a kite, testing the waters. And they are doing it through the media.”
With his expulsion, former ANC Youth League leader Julius Malema is no longer of much use to those in the ANC looking for leadership change.
“Instead of Malema shouting, we have inspired leaks about Motlanthe and Sexwale,” Friedman added.
And so it is likely the latest slate is a way to test the waters – or to “dipstick” – on behalf of Sexwale to avoid a repeat of the embarrassment of 2007 when he withdrew his push for presidency during the Polokwane conference when it became clear he lacked enough support.
Some say Sexwale has left his presidential push too late, even if the business tycoon has worked hard at downplaying his association with Malema, on whose behalf he testified during the drawn-out disciplinary proceedings.
There appears to be some frustration that Motlanthe has not shown his hand, causing the net to be cast wider, even as a recent TNS survey shows his urban approval levels of 49 percent are slightly higher than Zuma’s 46 percent.
Senior Eastern and Western Cape ANC officials dismissed Sexwale’s campaign in their provinces as “speculation” and attempts by some – it’s unclear if they are inside or outside the ANC – to distract branches.
Sexwale has spent time in the Eastern Cape to visit churches and the Western Cape, where his budget speech coincided with the launch of another phase of the N2 Gateway housing development at Cape Town’s Joe Slovo settlement in Langa.
Meanwhile, Zuma has handed over cattle and tractors in the Eastern Cape, where he will find himself again next week to deliver the next ANC centenary lecture.
But at last weekend’s Kwazulu-natal ANC conference, Zuma and Sexwale made a grand entrance together with Premier Zweli Mkhize.
Sexwale sat next to Zuma, chatting and singing along to the delegates’ pro-zuma songs.
The reality is that no one touted on any given slate will confirm or deny their intentions. That would be “unANC”, given the ruling party’s quaint notion of leadership as service to the people, regardless of the numerous examples of the grab for resources, including tenders and positions of state power.
However, the ANC is not blind in drawing the artificial line between discussions to evaluate leadership and jockeying for nomination. Its organisational renewal discussion document proposes a ban on “wrongful lobbying”, like fundraising for campaigns, producing T-shirts and posters and promising positions to gain support, but calls for candidates to be made to declare their financial interests and for this process to be streamlined by an integrity commission.
For now, however, the official party line emphasises process: nominations open only in October and will be followed by a series of gatherings of ANC structures, culminating in nine provincial list conferences close to Mangaung, most likely at the end of November.
However, leadership is, in fact, discussed within branches and regions as they go into their conferences, like in the Eastern Cape and in those provinces which have held or are due to hold their provincial conferences, including the Free State and Northern Cape.
And some are clever about it: ethekwini earlier this month held its regional general council and adopted a resolution that it would back Zuma. No one in the ANC can argue with that – the ban on the succession debate notwithstanding.
The recent Kwazulu-natal ANC conference offered the official line that it had confidence in and supported the leadership under Zuma, elected at Polokwane in 2007 because of its performance.
“We do have a view that the leadership is performing well,” said re-elected provincial secretary Sihle Zikalala.
“We have said there is no province that is on the other side as yet. Once a province pronounces itself, if contrary to our view, we’ll engage.”
Word has it Kwazulu-natal is looking for Senzo Mchunu, regarded as more senior and energetic than deputy chairman Willies Mchunu, to be reelected under the provincial drive for unity, by promoting the education MEC to premier. That would leave Mkhize free to be ANC national chairman.
As the Eastern Cape goes into its provincial general council, scheduled for midJune, it may well also pass a resolution on leadership.
These regional and provincial conferences give an insight into ANC leadership trends, reflecting as they do the thinking in branches – and the possible direction of the secret ballot at Mangaung.