We have to work together to achieve the climate safety aims of the Paris Agreement
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IT IS THREE weeks since the Paris Agreement to combat climate change came into force and the 22nd Conference of the Parties (COP22) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has concluded in the Moroccan city of Marrakesh.
COP22 focused on operationalising the Paris Agreement by 2020 and work has progressed in a number of areas.
The parties emphasised the need to increase their collective efforts on the basis of science and equity.
With the recent presidential elections in the US, the “elephant in the room” at the Marrakesh climate change negotiations was around the US’s future participation in driving global climate action.
After China, the US is the second-largest contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions, mainly from burning fossil fuels.
The US’s Nationally Determined Contribution submitted to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) secretariat last year sets emission reduction targets of 17 percent below 2005 levels by 2020, towards a long-term goal of more than 80 percent by the year 2050.
During current US President Barack Obama’s term in office, the international community made unprecedented progress in the climate change negotiations, culminating in the early entry into force of the Paris Agreement.
It is of concern to some, now, that the president-elect, Donald Trump, has previously made statements indicating that if he were elected he would withhold his country’s support for the Paris Agreement, and possibly even withdraw from it altogether.
We view these early pronouncements made by the US president-elect as serious.
It is of concern that should the US’s commitment to the Paris Agreement be annulled, both in terms of its Nationally Determined Contribution and financial support to developing countries, it may further reduce the global effort to reduce emissions.
In our analysis and our view, the way in which the Paris Agreement is structured means it is more than able to withstand the domestic political shocks of signatory countries.
It comprehensively covers all major challenges, it is flexible and transparent and infused with a nationally determined character.
The reality is there is no viable alternative to collective multilateral action.
The Paris Agreement is our best hope to achieve climate safety globally.
The robust nature of the agreement should offer political assurance to all countries, regardless of any shifts that may occur in domestic political constituencies.
The 2001 announcement by then US President George W Bush, that the US would not ratify the Kyoto Protocol, was instructive.
It unleashed international condemnation and put significant pressure on the US domestically.
Shortly afterwards, President Bush set up the Major Economies Meeting, the forerunner of what is now known as the Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate (MEF).
The MEF has played an important role in the international climate change negotiations and in the entry into force of the Paris Agreement, and it is expected to continue to do so as we work towards the year 2020 and beyond.
The US Secretary of State John Kerry convened a MEF meeting on the sidelines of COP22 to discuss the implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions.
What was apparent from this meeting was that the US remains committed to working with parties to combat climate change in the spirit of co-operation and under the convention.
We in South Africa are cautiously optimistic as it is only in January next year that the incoming US administration will indicate the nature of their participation in the global climate change agenda. Until then, we should focus our actions on finalising the Paris rulebook, and on the key aspects of operationalisation of the agreement.
This includes, but is not limited to, the issues of technology transfer and capacity building to enable developing countries to meet their climate change obligations.
If we are to achieve our goal of limiting global temperature increase to below 2ºC and successfully meet the 1.5ºC goal, we must close ambition gaps by accelerating the pre-2020 action.
The Paris Agreement, the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer to phase down hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) as well as the outcome of the International Civil Aviation Authority meeting have added positive momentum to our collective effort to reduce carbon emissions.
We must not lose this momentum and sense of urgency. In the same vein, it should not be regarded as a foregone conclusion that the new US president will derail the UNFCCC process. Molewa is Minister of Environmental Affairs.