WHY THE ANC STILL NEEDS ZUMA Molifi Tshabalala
The former president still has the potential to reunite the ruling party in Kwazulu-natal, writes
THE ANC national executive committee (NEC) cannot distance itself from its former president, Jacob Zuma, who appeared in court on Friday to face 16 counts of corruption, fraud, money laundering, racketeering and tax evasion – for fear he would cost it at the polls.
Even if the charges related to state capture or any other crime committed during his term of office, the ANC cannot distance itself from Zuma because it could not tell him what wrong he had done to start with.
The ANC NEC would be making a mistake to assume Cyril Ramaphosa’s illusionary new dawn will suffice to ensure it clings to power in 2019. Hence it is said that Ramaphosa wants to call for early elections. He is being misled, if not ill-advised.
Objective realities paint a contrary picture. The ANC needs Zuma, especially in his home province of Kwazulu-natal, which is indisputably the heartland of Zulu nationalism, if it is to hold onto the reins.
Following the 2016 local government elections (LGES), wherein the ANC lost Johannesburg, Nelson Mandela Bay (NMB) and Tshwane metropolitan municipalities and retained one, Ekurhuleni, through a coalition government, the DA has set its sights on securing state power next year, 10 years earlier than it originally planned.
This is not far-fetched, not by a long shot.
The ANC has not only dropped further to 54%, but also lost the most populous province of Gauteng, where it has dropped to 46%. Gauteng holds sway on the state capture, followed by Kwazulunatal, the Eastern Cape and Western Cape.
The ANC is also likely to lose the Eastern Cape in 2019.
The LGES are essentially a sample of the general elections. In 2006, the ANC lost the city of Cape Town to a Da-led coalition government.
Based on its good track record in the city in the main, a highlight of which was Western Cape Premier Helen Zille winning the 2008 World Mayor of the Year award, the DA won the Western Cape by 59%, growing its support by over 20%.
In the next elections, it grew by a further 8%.
The good work that DA mayors have been doing thus far in Johannesburg, NMB and Tshwane would help their party to do well in the Eastern Cape and Gauteng to the point of governing them through coalition governments.
Having already lost Gauteng, likely to lose the Eastern Cape, and unlikely to reclaim the Western Cape from the DA in the near future, the ANC will find it very difficult to cling to state power without doing well in Kwazulunatal on two counts.
First, it is at internecine war with itself in the province between a pro-sihle Zikalala faction, aligned to Zuma, and a pro-senzo Mchunu, aligned to Ramaphosa.
Consequently, it went to the 54th National Conference without the Provincial Executive Committee (PEC) and emerged as the biggest loser with the highest number of delegates.
It does not have a representative in the party’s top six national office-bearers.
Judging by the disgruntlement over a composition of the Provincial Task Team in Kwazulunatal, the war is set to continue in the run-up to, during and post a rerun of the eighth provincial conference.
Zuma has the charisma to unite the party in the province. In fact, his proposal to remain in power for six months and appear with Ramaphosa at public events to symbolise unity was a perfect idea, albeit he wanted to do it for his own end-game.
Second, Zuma still commands a great deal of admiration and support in the province.
Clearly, the ANC NEC did not heed Professor Xolela Mangcu’s unsolicited advice to EFF leader Julius Malema and his fellow revolutionary hotheads “that what stands between them and power is one very simple fact – most voters are not revolutionaries”.
Nor are most voters so concerned about corruption that they will not vote for the ANC because it supports Zuma under a universal principle that “one is innocent until proven guilty”.
In the 2014 general elections, preceded by a R246 million Nkandla scandal, the ANC’S support dwindled in all provinces, except in Kwazulu-natal. This speaks volumes about Zulu nationalism.
While campaigning for Ramaphosa, Police Minister Bheki Cele, who hails from Kwazulunatal and is a Zulu, said some Zulus asked him why he supported a non-nguni.