KZN tops employment stakes

Survey finds that SA employers are looking to add to their staff

THE QUARTERLY Labour Force Survey (QLFS) by Statistics SA showed that Kwazulu-natal (KZN) recordred the largest employment increase of 98 000 persons in the third quarter of 2018, compared with the third quarter of 2017.

KZN was followed by the

Western Cape with 95 000 as employment increased in six of the nine provinces, but employment losses were recorded in the Free State (48 000), Eastern Cape (31 000) and North West (4 000).

The good news is that the Manpower survey for employment prospects in the fourth quarter also showed KZN at the top of the provincial league table, so KZN is likely to remain the provincial winner in the fourth quarter as well. The Manpower survey of hiring intentions for the fourth quarter should bring relief to job seekers, as it reports that employers are looking to add to their staff. Payrolls are forecast to increase in three of the five regions covered by the Manpower survey during the fourth quarter of 2018 with KZN employers reporting favourable hiring prospects with a net employment outlook of +13 percent, while employers in both Gauteng and Western Cape also have positive readings at +8 percent and +7 percent respectively.

The good news on the employment front is especially likely to eventuate due to the new direct flight between London and Durban, which was inaugurated on October 30, which will boost tourism numbers to KZN. This comes on top of the opening of improved road links with southern Mozambique following the completion of the new Maputo bridge and the improvement of the road between Maputo and the KZN border.

In addition, the relaxing of visa requirements announced in September as part of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s economic recovery and stimulus package should boost tourism to KZN from the Middle

East, as Durban has direct air links with the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.

A detail that seems to have been missed in coverage of the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement is that the expected revenue shortfall of R27 billion compared with the February Budget projections is that the majority is due to a R20bn acceleration in Value-added Tax refunds. This money is equivalent to a tax cut, as it puts money back into tax payers’ pockets and this will boost consumer spending in coming months.

This is on top of the boost given to consumers by the more than doubling in take-home pay to a 7.3 percent year-on-year (y/y) increase in the third quarter from only a small 3.6 percent y/y gain in the second quarter according to the Bankservafrica Take-home Pay Index compiled by economists.co.za.

The improvement in economic activity in the third quarter compared with the recession in the first half of the year is already visible in the government’s tax collection data.