AFRICA’S TOP POLITICAL RISKS
THE start of 2019 has seen a flurry of political activity from Mali to Madagascar, with a shock opposition victory in Africa’s biggest country, protests against long-serving rulers, a short-lived coup and agitation stirred by economic mismanagement all suggesting this will be a year to watch.
South Africa and Nigeria, the continent’s two biggest economies, are among more than 20 nations that will hold elections this year. Voting takes place against a backdrop of growing discontent among the young over job and educational opportunities in countries long dominated by strongmen. China, Russia and Islamist militants add a layer of unpredictability as they jostle for influence.
One of the continent’s brightest spots is Ethiopia, whose prime minister Abiy Ahmed is pursuing change at a breathtaking pace and overseeing Africa’s fastest-growing economy. Since taking power last year, Abiy has sought to establish a multi-party democracy in a nation that’s been under the iron rule of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front for 25 years. But can he see it through?
Here is a guide to issues – and opportunities – for investors this year:
Democratic Republic of Congo: The risk of widespread political unrest receded after electoral authorities announced opposition leader Felix Tshisekedi had won last month’s presidential elections. Tension had been building in sub-saharan Africa’s largest nation and the world’s biggest cobalt producer after an earlier postponement of results from the December 30 vote that was more than two years overdue. There is a danger of protests from supporters of Martin Fayulu, who called the result “electoral fraud”. If confirmed by the Constitutional Court, the outcome will bring to a close Joseph Kabila’s 18-year rule and mark the first democratic transition since independence from Belgium in 1960.
Nigeria: Bracing itself for another round of general elections that have traditionally been marred by violence and rigging. Presidential and parliamentary votes are taking place under the shadow of a war against Islamist militants in the north-east, clashes between farmers and herders that have claimed thousands of lives, and a moribund economy. The presidential race in Opec’s sixth-biggest oil producer is proving to be a hard-fought battle between incumbent Muhammadu Buhari, 76, and Atiku Abubakar, a 72-year-old businessman who served as vice-president from 1999 to 2007.
Sudan: Entered the new year with unprecedented protests over soaring living costs, posing one of the greatest challenges to President Omar al-bashir since he came to power in a 1989 Islamist-backed coup. Bashir, who has quelled several internal rebellions and been indicted by the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes, is facing a challenge closer to home in the shape of unrest that has left dozens of casualties.
South Sudan: Africa’s newest nation is emerging, tentatively, from a conflict that at its height rivalled Syria for the dubious title of the world’s worst conflict, claiming almost 400 000 lives. The country, which split from Sudan in 2011, has witnessed false dawns before, and its pillaged towns and villages show the scale of the challenge in rebuilding even a country endowed with sub-saharan Africa’s third-biggest oil reserves.
Somalia: Twin explosions that killed at least 30 people near the presidential palace in the capital, Mogadishu, at the close of 2018 served as a reminder of the threat al-qaeda-linked militants pose. The insurgents remain the biggest source of insecurity, despite continuing operations to degrade it, including US air strikes that are intensifying under President Donald Trump’s administration.
Cameroon: A violent rebellion in its two Anglophone regions is affecting the larger French-speaking area, which registered its first attack late last year and is sheltering thousands of people who have been forced to flee homes in the north-west and south-west regions. A disarmament programme recently announced by long-time President Paul Biya has yet to yield results. Biya has vowed to quash those who refuse to put down their weapons in 2019.
Sahel region: An Islamist insurgency that began in northern Mali seven years ago and reverberated across West Africa shows no signs of abating. The deployment of more than 15 000 UN peacekeepers and 4 000 French troops has failed to stop militant attacks from spreading to neighbouring Burkina Faso. Both nations are facing a surge in inter-communal violence in impoverished rural areas that pits farming communities against ethnic Fulani herders.
Chad: Deployed troops and military aircraft near its border with Libya following a deadly attack last year on army positions by rebels called the Military Command Council for the Salvation of the Republic, widely believed to be supported by Libyan fighters. The government of the oil-producing nation has been bogged down by public worker strikes in an economic crisis.
Libya: After eight years of turmoil, it was offered hope when the main rival leaders – Fayez al Serraj, whose internationally recognised government is based in the west, and Field Marshall Khalifa Haftar in the east – agreed to cease hostilities and call elections early this year. But the holder of Africa’s largest proven reserves of crude remains deeply divided, and disputed vote results could spark more chaos and embolden IS’S bid to carve out a base. That would affect regional security and increase migrant flows to Europe. Russia has been expanding its presence and is lobbying for the return of Saif al-islam Qaddafi, the late dictator’s son, as a possible next ruler.
Zimbabwe: Labour unrest is mounting as it endures its worst economic crisis in a decade, with fuel, food, medicines and foreign exchange in short supply. Doctors have gone on strike, demanding salaries be paid in hard currency instead of via electronic transfers, and teachers have threatened similar action. Political tensions continue to simmer, with the government and opposition still at loggerheads over last year’s disputed election.
Guinea-bissau: A political feud in its capital is threatening to push one of the world’s poorest countries back to being a haven for gangs smuggling cocaine into Europe and open the door to Islamist militants. The dispute between President Jose Mario Vaz with his party over delayed elections is stoking anger among young people dissatisfied with faltering job and educational opportunities.
Togo: Negotiations about constitutional changes with its largest opposition parties are at an impasse, and mass protests against the regime of President Faure Gnassingbe will continue. He has been in power since winning disputed elections in 2005 held after the death in office of his father Gnassingbe Eyadema, who ruled for 38 years.