IS not about to vanish after losing its caliphate

THE Islamic State’s era of territorial rule may be over, but there is near-universal agreement that it remains a threat.

What has IS defeat accomplished?

Holding land in Iraq and Syria set the IS apart from similar groups such as al-qaeda and became central to its mission when it declared a caliphate in 2014, claiming sovereignty over all Muslim lands and peoples.

The destruction of the quasi-state it built there has denied the group its most potent propaganda and recruiting tool, as well as a logistical base from which it could train fighters and plan co-ordinated attacks overseas.

It also freed subjects from summary executions and draconian punishment for breaking strict laws or, for minorities, sexual slavery and slaughter.

Warfare wiped out thousands of its fighters. And, financially, its defeat deprives it of greater resources than any modern jihadist movement has enjoyed, including taxes on its inhabitants and the proceeds of oil sales.

What threat does it still pose in Iraq and Syria?

In its previous guise as an al-qaeda offshoot in Iraq a decade ago, it navigated adversity by going underground, biding its time to rise suddenly again.

Since suffering devastating territorial losses in 2017, the IS has steadily returned to such tactics. Sleeper cells in Iraq have staged a scatter-gun campaign of kidnappings and killings.

The group has also carried out bombings in north-eastern Syria, which is controlled by Us-backed Kurdish forces, including one that killed four Americans in January.

Even losing their last foothold of Baghouz, they still have a presence in sparsely populated areas otherwise held by the Syrian government.

What has happened to its leaders, fighters and followers?

The fate of IS leader Abu Bakr al-baghdadi is a mystery. US experts believe he is alive and possibly hiding in Iraq. Other top-echelon leaders have been killed in air strikes.

Thousands of IS insurgents and civilian followers have been killed and as many captured. It’s unclear how many remain at large in Syria and Iraq.

Iraq is putting on trial, imprisoning and executing IS detainees. The Us-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) holds hundreds of IS members.

Many low-level local operatives have been released in Syria.

The SDF has complained Western states are reluctant to take back the foreign fighters, who are widely seen as a security threat at home but who might be hard to legally prosecute.

Can it still organise attacks overseas?

The head of Britain’s spy agency MI6 has warned the IS could return to “asymmetric” attacks.

Even after it began losing ground militarily, the IS still claimed responsibility for attacks in various countries.

Years ago it called on followers abroad to plan their own attacks rather than focus on those staged by trained operatives supported by the hierarchy.

Early last year, the head of the US military central command said the IS was resilient and remained capable of “inspiring attacks throughout the region and outside the Middle East”.

What does its fall mean for the future of the global jihad?

Although the IS’S core territory was in Iraq and Syria, jihadists fighting in other countries, notably Nigeria, Yemen and Afghanistan, pledged their allegiance to it. Whether they will still wear its mantle, especially if Baghdadi is captured or killed, is an open question, but there seems little chance they will soon end their campaigns.

Al-qaeda retains numerous franchises worldwide and other militant Islamist groups operate in countries where governance has broken down.

Jihadist ideology has proven able to mutate as circumstances change and there is no shortage of warfare, injustice, oppression and sectarianism for Islamist militants to exploit.