FACING THE FACTS AS THE CHICKENS COME HOME TO ROOST

THE Nigerian comedy series on African Magic can be addictively instructive. It provides an outsider with a glimpse of the social, economic, cultural and filial arrangements in Nigeria. The recent revision of the size of the Nigerian economy included the rise in the use of technology, the emergent Nollywood and the historical and massive informal sector. This African giant, numbering 195 million by the more recent projections, has struggled and continues for years to struggle to address regular supply of electratra (as it is called in pigeon). This poses a major constraint to manufacturing – a main historical driver of job creation and economic value add in a country that is among the five top oil producers in the world. South Africa faces a similar crisis, the third in a decade. Given the uncertainty of the malaise, many a household in South Africa might finally have to resort to using generators. In Nigeria, every office and almost every house is an independent power producer (IPP). They each have a generator. When electricity goes off, the generator competition is triggered. The noise pollution and fume emissions become unbearable. In South Africa, the chickens have come home to roost as we contend with the consequences of the reality of our shallow analysis and our fundamental sciencebased and data-driven knowledge deficits. We cannot address the profound economic, social and political problems with these malformations. While it was necessary to cut a bloated civil service in 1994 for transformation purposes, the reality is that the most capable took voluntary packages and left. They either got jobs elsewhere or became new consultants to the government, at very steep prices. The government was robbed of Afrikaner engineers at especially municipal level, with dire consequences. The country should be careful not to lose its most-experienced people. The best way to deal with the bloated system is through performance management. Any other process will only shift and postpone the pain while hollowing the state of those who are capable and competent. We are, therefore, faced with two equally toxic prospects of non-delivery. First, we are not going to have enough energy. Generators remain the solution in the short to medium term if the structural defaults of Medupi and Kusile are anything to go by. The solution remains a costly parallel energy system. Second, the civil service is going to be hollowed of capability by offering 55-year-olds and above voluntary retirement packages. The incentive will probably draw more than 30 000 competent civil servants out and retain those who will not be able to do the job. What then is our disease? It is what I would call factphobia. We need to cure ourselves of this malaise.