No baby boom, as a result of Covid

THE global population will start to decline in about 30 years.

That’s according to Ipsos, the world’s third-largest market and opinion research company, which reported that recent calculations show that the current global population of 7.8 billion people will grow to about 8.5 billion before starting to decline.

According to the report, from studies into the current status of the world population and emerging trends, it was clear that many of the “facts” that were bandied about for years around the global population were wrong: in about three decades or so the global population will start to decline.

Today World Population Day is celebrated globally to raise awareness among people across the globe regarding population issues such as the importance of family planning, child marriage, gender equality, human rights etc.

This year due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the day will focus on the impact of a pandemic on fertility.

At the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, there was speculation that lockdown and staying at home would lead to an increase in the birth rate, a sort of mini baby boom.

However, early indications were that this was not necessarily true.

The Brookings Institute estimated that 300 000 babies will not be born in the US as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, while Canada reported its lowest birth rate in history.

In addition, the recently released census in China shows almost a 20% decline in China’s birth rate between 2020 and 2021.

Mari Harris, director and political analyst, Ipsos SA, said in time the population would decline but not as a direct result of Covid.

“A lot of people thought after Covid there might be a baby boom, but indications are that there is no baby boom,” said Harris.

Harris believes a pandemic can wreak havoc in a country and make people far more conscious of threats like Covid.

“In the overall population growth Covid is not going to have a big influence. I think the influence of Covid would be more psychological,” she said.

Darrel Bricker, Ipsos chief executive of public affairs, said as the data on births around the world over the last year and bit rolled out it was clear that there had been a considerable reduction in fertility over this period.

“China is the best example. The government is reporting a decline of close to 20% in the number of babies born in 2020. That’s why they announced allowing families to have up to three children now. It doesn’t matter though. Allowing people to have children they don’t want will make little difference. The other big effect has been accelerated premature deaths among the elderly since they are disproportionately impacted by Covid.

“This all adds up to a potential lower peak in population size and a decline that could start quicker than expected,” said Bricker.

In 1960, each woman in the world had an average of 5.2 children, this figure has declined to the current 2.4, and the expected ratio in 2050 is that each woman will contribute an average of 2.2 children to the world population.

In Africa, the fertility rate declined from 6.7 in 1960 to 4.2 today, and it will be at an average of 2.9 in 2050.

According to Ipsos the worldwide decline in fertility can be ascribed to various factors, namely urbanisation, the empowerment of women, and particularly the issues of women’s access to education and increasing standards of education, changing cultures, the success of governmental and non-governmental programmes.