Turkey’s complex relations with Russia and Ukraine
US AND European leaders are increasingly concerned about Russia’s military deployment in the region and the possibility it could invade Ukraine.
The US is supplying arms and ammunition to Kiev, while Germany blocks a Nato ally from transferring weapons to Ukraine. Berlin has avoided provoking Russia as they are bound by economic co-operation in terms of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline that runs through Danish waters to Germany.
On the other hand, Nato member Turkey, which enjoys a better relationship with Russia compared to the US and various European countries, is ironically fully backing Kyiv with Turkish Bayraktar TB2 combat drones.
Despite the dangers of Ukraine being a country at war, with tourism organisations reporting Ukraine to be one of the riskiest holiday destinations in the world, there has been a tourist boom between Turkey and Ukraine in recent years. An estimated 20 planes fly from Turkey to various cities in Ukraine every day, while many Turks also travel there by car.
Turkey has repeatedly offered to “mediate” between Moscow and Kyiv, but President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s main goal is to use Ukraine to counterbalance Russia in that region and to get as much benefit as possible from the crisis. Turkey and Russia have developed a complex relationship that involves continuing commercial ties despite their political and military disagreements.
Ankara and Moscow have huge energy projects such as the Turkstream pipeline, a new export gas pipeline stretching from Russia to Turkey under the Black Sea, and the construction of the Akkuyu nuclear power plant in Turkey’s Mersin province. On the other hand, Erdogan strongly opposed Russia’s annexation of Crimea, and has warned Russia against invading Ukraine.
The Washington Post reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s main concern lies not in US military aid to Ukraine, but rather in the threat of Turkish drones in Ukraine.
Russia has been warning Turkey over the last few months about its drone support to Ukraine. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said in December that while Turkey and Russia enjoy a good relationship, Turkish drones in Eastern Ukraine could destabilise the situation in the region. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavusoglu responded to the Kremlin’s warning by saying that Ankara cannot be blamed for Ukraine’s deployment of the drones. According to a Newsweek report, Putin, during a call with Erdogan last month, “stressed that Kyiv has continued its destructive efforts to sabotage the Minsk agreements, such as provocative activities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the conflict zone, including the use of Bayraktar attack drones”.
Turkey and Russia’s differences extend beyond the issue of Ukraine to the situations in Libya and Syria, where the countries support different sides. The Kazakhstan crisis is likely to push Turkey and Russia into more confrontation in the region and the international arena.
Turkey and Russia’s relationship has interestingly strengthened since a Turkish F-16s downed a Russian warplane in the Turkey-syria border area on October 25, 2015 after Turkey claimed that the Russian jet had violated Turkish airspace for a period of just 17 seconds.
Turkey’s shooting down of the Russian Su-24 was the first time in more than 63 years that a NATO jet had shot down a Russian aircraft.
Putin initially threatened Turkey, but the tension quickly eased following an apology by Erdogan and Turkey’s subsequent order for a Russian S-400 air defence system.
However, the main factor behind peace between Erdogan and Putin was the mediation of Kazakhstan’s former president, Nur Sultan Nazarbayev. Nazarbayev is a former Communist Party politburo member who had established a strong relationship with Putin.
But Nazarbayev is no longer in power. Kazakh President Kassym-jomart Tokayev invited the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization to help control protestors in the first week of January. Tokayev did not invite the Organization of Turkic States, formerly called the Turkic Council, an international organisation that was first proposed by Nazarbayev in 2006 and launched in 2009.
Tokayev preferred Russia over Turkey and has been purging Nazarbayev’s loyalists in key positions. Of course, the motivation behind Turkey’s involvement in Kazakhstan is different from that of its involvement in Ukraine.
Erdogan is pursuing Turkic unity together with his election ally, Nationalist Movement Party leader Devlet Bahçeli. Prominent Turkish journalist Cengiz Çandarlı commented in a piece published by Al-monitor on January 12 that Turkey seems to have lost track of developments in Kazakhstan since Tokayev prefered the Russian-led military bloc and that the crisis represents a defeat of Turkish nationalism on foreign policy.
Turkish presidential spokesperson Ibrahim Kalın said this week that Erdogan will be travelling to Kyiv “in a couple of weeks” to try to ease tension with Russia. Despite Ankara’s efforts for “peace”, the Kremlin rejects Erdogan's offers of mediation because of Turkey’s drone sale to Ukraine.