Mali woos Russians, rejects French
IF GROWING diplomatic rumours that Russia has warned France and Ecowas (the Economic Community of West African States) against any military intervention in Mali are true, the geopolitical implications of such rumours are considerable.
The context is everything and tells it all. West Africa is in turmoil, again.
The dreaded spectre of coups d’état has again been raising its ugly head in West Africa over the past six months. Burkina Faso is the latest country to see the military overthrow a legitimate government, adding to a growing list of disruptive changes in government.
Even “Operation Barkhane”, famously known as the number one counter-terrorism effort in the region costing more than $1 billion (about R15bn) annually, has been unable to create stability in Mali and the Sahel with its large battalion comprising almost 5 000 French troops.
The operation has resulted in the deaths of 45 French troops since 2013. To counter the proliferation of jihadist groups in the northern region, Mali and neighbouring governments, with the help of France and the UN, deployed more than 20 000 international and local troops.
There were 45 000 French troops, 13 000 UN peacekeepers and at least 5 000 troops affiliated to the GS Sahel – an initiative spearheaded by France, alongside Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger.
The last decade has seen a rise in terrorism in the Sahel, with devastating effects on many countries, and Mali is now paying the price.
Recent military coups d’état in Mali, Guinea and most recently in Burkina Faso are the depressing signs of the deep political, economic and social crises in the region.
For decades now, these crises have grown and engulfed the former colonies of France.
They have morphed into grave and intractable security challenges that even France is incapable of fixing.
Given the longevity of France’s “forever war” in Mali, there has been a growing indigenous resentment of the French troops both in the country and in the Sahel region in general.
France’s lacklustre eight-year military presence in Mali and in the Sahel is being blamed by Mali’s military leaders. They are asking difficult questions about the growing and bloody terrorist attacks in the northern part of Mali, which has been devastated by
prolonged insecurity.
The Malian transitional government, led by the military, has strong evidence that France has failed them, and demands a different approach to dealing with the insecurity in Mali. As such, it has asked France to take a back seat to allow Mali to fix its own problems. In short, they want Malian solutions for Malian problems.
Unfortunately, the negotiations between Malian leaders and France have gone sour and are degenerating into ugly public spats and confrontations.
Recently at the UN, Malian Prime Minister Choguel Maiga stated that “France has abandoned Mali in midflight”. The statement was poorly received by France.
President Emmanuel Macron and his Foreign Affairs minister, Jean-yves le Drian, in a brutal rebuttal, castigated Maiga and threatened to withdraw French troops from Mali, leaving Malians baffled and angry.
Malian leaders had to find a rapid solution to their insecurity problems and seek reliable partners for help. They turned to Russia, an old ally, after having seen their security success in the Central African Republic.
Russia agreed, and sent military advisers, hardware, and deployed a contingent of security soldiers to meet the Malian demand.
The French, unhappy and suspicious of this Malian-russian alliance, are livid. It is becoming very clear, someone said, that “the noose is tightening around France and its Ecowas allies”.
After threatening Mali with possible military intervention, Ecowas, France, Washington and the EU received an unambiguous and clear message from Moscow.
So things are heating up in Mali and their renewed partnership with Russia in West Africa and in the Sahel has major geopolitical implications.
Mali is presenting herself as the symbol of a nation trying to free herself from French domination, and seeks new partners on her own terms.
The rumoured diplomatic warning of Russia to France and her allies exposes worrying geopolitical dynamics that raise many questions.
Will Mali and the Sahel become the future theatre of a potential wider war that might start on the African continent?
Will Russia be a trusted ally to Mali? But most important, is Russia playing a potentially lethal geopolitical game of chance in Mali – Russian roulette?
The unstable context, the security challenges, the belligerent protagonists, and the war scenarios have grave implications for Africa.
These are worrying times. But also potentially liberating.
Matseke is a PHD candidate in International Relations and researcher at the Centre for Africa-china Studies, University of Johannesburg. Kouakou is Africa analyst and senior research fellow at The Centre of Africa China, University of Johannesburg