On eve of policy meeting, SA slid ing into vortex
PERHAPS Banyana Banyana have pointed out to us, in the moment of our darkness, that there is not just a lot more to gender but also a lot more to gender for the national agenda.
And it is something to bear in mind as we celebrate Women’s Month in August.
We can see this in history. Manthatisi, the Batlokwa Queen (1784-1847), acted as the regent for her son, Sekonyela, and led the Batlokoa who were retreating and surrendering on the line of battle. The Likonyela went back and returned victorious.
Woman power might just be what we need in leadership.
The ANC holds its Sixth Policy Conference over the weekend, and South Africa is all eyes.
Indlulamithi, an institution established in 2016 at the height of state capture, focuses on the direction the country is taking and draws on the promise of the National Development Plan. It projects where measures progress, or lack thereof, in South Africa in its march towards 2030.
Through the South Africa 2030 Scenario, Indlulamithi delivered its fifth report on July 22, Indlulamithi Day.
Indllamithi identified three scenarios that could eventuate by 2030. Annually, the tendencies to this scenarios are measured, and this measure was the fifth on the tendencies South Africa is gravitating towards.
The three scenarios are Gwara
Gwara, which is defined as a nation torn between immobility and restless energy. Gwara Gwara embodies a demoralised land or disorder and decay.
Isibujwa epitomising a looselimbed, jumpy nation with a frenetic edge, Isibujwa is a South Africa torn by deepening social divides, daily protests and cynical self-interest.
Nayi le Walk represents a nation in step with itself. This defines a South Africa where growing social cohesion, economic expansion and a renewed sense of constitutionalism get South Africa going.
The scenarios were quantified and elaborated on a combination of policies that could yield the said outcomes. A more optimistic scenario of Nayi le Walk points to a South Africa growing at more than 6 percent, unemployment dropping to 15 percent, and poverty dropping to 12 percent by 2030. But that depends
on the policy choices the government executes. Key among these are changing the macro-economic policy framework that is being pursued. The barometer has been released annually since Indlumithi was launched in 2018.
President Cyril Ramaphosa launched Indlulamithi. He implored us to ensure that the scenarios become a nationally shared treasure. On that day, he said something prophetic. Something worth reflecting on.
He asked: Why are we not having a worst-case scenario?
Now, in the fullness of time and evidence, one asks: What is it that he knew that we were not able to see then?
It was certainly not Covid-19, although Covid precipitated the crisis. Was it the fire and floods? Maybe not.
We now explore the obvious with regard to where South Africa is rapidly gravitating towards. We measure the epic forces that drive us towards an outcome scenario.
The first of these relate to resentment, resistance and reconciliation. The second is institutional capacity and leadership. And the third is social inequality.
The scorecard shows a worsening situation and obvious rapid slide towards Gwara-gwara. Our plunge into Gwara-gwara, within a short five years, has been from 46 percent to 62 percent. If the pace of decline into Gwara-gwara, which averaged 3 percent, represented growth in the gross domestic product, then the country would have seen progress.
Social inequality contributed the greatest in the Gwara-gwara scenario and was at 85 percent.
The Nayi Le Walk scenario, the most optimistic scenario, is fading fast by the day. It stands at 9 percent this year, from a share of 17 percent. This is almost a 50 percent drop.
As the ANC convenes its sixth policy conference, it is against the worst-case scenario.
This, of course, is nothing new. The last two scenarios, one which is the future we chose, South Africa 2025 pointed to worst-case scenario eventuating.
This was the Muvangho Scenario. On the eve of the conference, the country is facing a vortex, a deepening Gwara Gwara.
Once upon a time, South Africa was on a Shosholoza Scenario, under the memories of the future scenario, South Africa 2014. Even under the Mont Fleur Scenario, which influenced the shape of the settlement, South Africa had an aura about it despite low growth and increasing unemployment. It had a stronger and clearer leadership.